债市策略思考：寻找投资中的“蓝海”市场

Core Insights - The bond market has not yet formed a clear main line, and a short-term strategy of "watching stocks while trading bonds" for wave trading is theoretically feasible but has significant practical limitations. It may be advisable to consider strategies from the equity market in similar environments, such as moderately increasing allocations to credit bonds with higher coupon protection to withstand potential market volatility [1][2][3] Group 1: Current Stock and Bond Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index halted its strong upward trend after achieving seventeen consecutive days of gains, with a notable pullback on January 13 and a significant rebound on January 14, closing at 4101.91 points on January 16, temporarily holding above the 4100-point mark [1][12][14] - The underlying reasons for the recent adjustments in the equity market include a high slope of the index's rise post-New Year, leading to profit-taking motives among investors. Additionally, an external trigger was the announcement on January 14 to raise the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100%, which negatively impacted investor sentiment [1][14][15] - The bond market has exhibited a narrow range of fluctuations since Q4 2025, with the 10-year government bond yield primarily oscillating between 1.80% and 1.90%. This behavior is attributed to the lack of a clear main line in the bond market, resulting in a "passive following" of equity and commodity market trends [2][18][22] Group 2: Investment Strategy in the Current Market - In the absence of a clear trading main line, asset pricing is increasingly driven by short-term emotions, liquidity, and events, making it more challenging to determine price direction and limiting the risk-reward ratio of investments. Frequent trading can accumulate high friction costs and may amplify net value drawdowns due to misjudgments [4][23] - The report suggests anchoring investment goals to achieve more certain returns and actively reducing unnecessary trading frequency as a rational choice to adapt to the current market state. Drawing from the successful experience of dividend strategies in the weak equity market from 2021 to 2024, the focus should shift from chasing short-term price fluctuations to relying on stable cash flows to build a safety net for returns [4][24][25] - In the current weak and volatile bond market, it is recommended to moderately increase allocations to credit bonds with higher coupon protection to mitigate potential market fluctuations. Continuing to bet on wave trading essentially involves gambling in a "red ocean" with low win rates and low odds, which is susceptible to emotional fluctuations and rhythm misjudgments [5][27]