生猪周报：短时近月或偏强-20260117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: The structural contradiction remains unresolved, the downward driving force of the spot is insufficient, and the near - month futures may continue to be strongly volatile. Mid - term: The supply base is still large, and there is a risk of the living inventory piling up later. The far - end price may face concentrated realization and remain under pressure [11][12]. - Low prices and festival effects stimulate better consumption. The large fat - standard price difference leads to the sentiment of hoarding and delaying sales. After the Winter Solstice, the spot price has significantly increased, driving a rational rebound in the futures [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market: Last week, domestic pig prices fluctuated. Overall, the north was stronger than the south. In the early part of the week, the enthusiasm of farmers to sell was low, the market supply was limited, and downstream buyers raised prices to purchase. But the market digestion ability was limited. In the later part of the week, as the supply increased, the price declined. The weekly slaughter volume decreased, the average trading weight increased, the fat - standard price difference was higher year - on - year but declined month - on - month. In the short - term, pig prices may continue to fluctuate. In the medium - term, pig prices may rise again as the pre - Spring Festival demand peak approaches [11]. - Supply Side: Since last year, the reduction of sows has been limited. Although the capacity reduction has accelerated since October, due to the time - lag effect, the theoretical supply in at least the first half of this year is still large, and the fundamentals will improve in the second half of the year. In December last year, the pig price was not weak, which slowed down the sow reduction progress, with the sow inventory increasing by 0.54% month - on - month according to Yongyi data. The theoretical出栏量 remains high in the first half of the year, peaking in March. After April, although there is a seasonal decline month - on - month, the decline is small and the year - on - year volume is still high. Currently, the supply of large pigs in the market is tight, the fat - standard price difference is high year - on - year, which leads to strong sentiment of hoarding and delaying sales among upstream farmers. Although the slaughter volume is not low, the average trading weight has increased against the season, indicating a sign of the living inventory piling up later [11]. - Demand Side: Slaughtering enterprises reported that the sales speed of white - striped pigs was slow, and their acceptance of high - priced live pigs was decreasing, which restricted the increase of pig prices to some extent [11]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, go long on the 03 contract in the short - term and wait to go short on the 05 and 07 contracts. For arbitrage, prefer positive spreads [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spot Trend: Last week, pig prices first declined and then rose. The supply of large pigs was tight, and the upstream hoarding sentiment was strong. But after New Year's Day, the demand decreased, which narrowed the price increase. The average trading weight was larger year - on - year and increased month - on - month, and the fat - standard price difference declined from a high level but was still large year - on - year. Next week, the supply will increase slightly, which has a negative impact on the market. However, the resistance sentiment of farmers may limit the price decline. The demand support is insufficient due to the decrease in slaughter volume and the slowdown of secondary fattening. It is expected that pig prices will mainly show a stable and slightly declining trend [22]. - Basis and Spread Trend: The spot price rebounded, the futures basis turned positive, and the monthly spread turned to a positive spread [25]. 3.3 Supply Side - Sow Inventory and Changes: Since last year, the reduction of sows has been limited. Although the capacity reduction has accelerated since October, the theoretical supply in at least the first half of this year is still large due to the time - lag effect. The fundamentals will improve in the second half of the year. In December last year, the pig price was not weak, which slowed down the sow reduction progress, with the sow inventory increasing by 0.54% month - on - month according to Yongyi data [34]. - Theoretical出栏量: From the piglet data, the theoretical出栏量 remains high in the first half of the year, peaking in March. After April, although there is a seasonal decline month - on - month, the decline is small and the year - on - year volume is still high [42]. - Size of Slaughtered Pigs: The proportion of small pigs in slaughter is generally low but slowly rising, indicating that the current epidemic situation has increased but is generally controllable. The proportion of large pigs has seasonally increased, indicating that large pigs from散户 are gradually being sold [45]. - Trading and Post - slaughter Average Weight: Currently, the supply of large pigs in the market is tight, the fat - standard price difference is high year - on - year, which leads to strong sentiment of hoarding and delaying sales among upstream farmers. Although the slaughter volume is not low, the average trading weight has increased against the season, indicating a sign of the living inventory piling up later [49]. 3.4 Demand Side - Slaughter Volume: Currently, the increase in slaughter volume is limited, and its support for the market is insufficient. The price of large pigs is high, the pace of secondary fattening replenishment has slowed down, and the support from secondary fattening demand is also insufficient [58]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - Due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement, the cost is in a continuous decline state. The pig price is the weakest in the same period in many years. Although the cost is low, there has been an overall loss this year [69]. 3.6 Inventory Side - The frozen product inventory is in a state of slow recovery and active inventory accumulation [74].