锰硅周报：短期延续震荡整理，以成本为支撑，等待驱动并向上展望-20260117

Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bullish sentiment in the commodities market will continue, mainly centered around precious metals and non - ferrous metals. Other sectors are more affected by the spill - over of market sentiment, and the scope of sentiment influence may shrink in the short term [16][94] - The supply - demand pattern of manganese - silicon is still unfavorable, but these factors are mostly priced in. The supply - demand structure of silicon - iron is basically balanced with marginal improvement. The future market drivers for both manganese - silicon and silicon - iron are the direction of the black sector and overall market sentiment, as well as cost - push from manganese ore for manganese - silicon and supply contraction for silicon - iron [16][94] - Pay close attention to potential sudden events in the manganese ore market and the progress of the 'dual - carbon' policy, and look forward to an upward trend supported by costs [16][94] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Manganese - Silicon Report 3.1.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Last week, the manganese - silicon futures price oscillated weakly, down 66 yuan/ton or - 1.12% week - on - week. Technically, it's in an oscillatory phase. Watch the resistance levels at 6000 and 6250 yuan/ton and support levels at 5800 and 5700 yuan/ton [13] - Spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures price was 5828 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton; basis was 82 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton; basis rate was 1.40%, at a relatively neutral historical level [15][21] - Calculated profit remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 355 yuan/ton (up 59 yuan/ton), Ningxia at - 601 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan/ton), and Guangxi at - 375 yuan/ton (up 63 yuan/ton) [15] - Calculated cost: Inner Mongolia was 6105 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton), Ningxia was 6231 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan/ton), and Guangxi was 6225 yuan/ton (up 37 yuan/ton) [15] - Supply: Weekly production was 19.06 tons, down 0.04 tons week - on - week, basically stable [15][45] - Demand: Weekly production of rebar was 190.3 tons, down 0.74 tons; daily average pig iron production was 228.01 tons, down 1.49 tons [15] - Inventory: Calculated visible inventory was 56.17 tons, up 1.13 tons, still at a high level compared to the same period [15][70] 3.1.2 Spot and Futures Market - As of January 16, 2026, Tianjin 6517 manganese - silicon spot price was 5720 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures price was 5828 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton; basis was 82 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton; basis rate was 1.40%, at a relatively neutral level [21] 3.1.3 Profit and Cost - Production profit: Inner Mongolia was - 355 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan/ton; Ningxia was - 601 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton; Guangxi was - 375 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton [25][26] - Production cost: South African ore was 36.5 yuan/ton - degree (up 0.7 yuan/ton - degree), Australian ore was 42 yuan/ton - degree (stable), Gabonese ore was 43.3 yuan/ton - degree (up 0.3 yuan/ton - degree); metallurgical coke was 1185 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [28] - Inner Mongolia's electricity price decreased by 0.0175 yuan/kWh. Calculated cost: Inner Mongolia was 6105 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton), Ningxia was 6231 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan/ton), Guangxi was 6225 yuan/ton (up 37 yuan/ton) [31] - In November, manganese ore imports were 269.4 tons, down 40.6 tons month - on - month and up 49.4 tons year - on - year. From January to November, cumulative imports were 2956.8 tons, up 10.63% year - on - year [34] - As of January 9, 2026, manganese ore port inventory was 417.5 tons, down 30.3 tons. Australian ore inventory was 69.1 tons, up 3.4 tons; high - grade ore inventory was 124.1 tons, up 1.1 tons [37][40] 3.1.4 Supply and Demand - Total production: As of January 16, 2026, weekly production was 19.06 tons, down 0.04 tons week - on - week, basically stable. In December 2025, monthly production was 84.35 tons, down 0.53 tons month - on - month [45] - Steel procurement: Hebei Steel's December 2025 manganese - silicon procurement volume was 14,700 tons, down 1300 tons month - on - month and up 1100 tons year - on - year; procurement price was 5770 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton month - on - month [56] - Consumption: Weekly apparent consumption was 11.58 tons, down 0.01 tons week - on - week; rebar weekly production was 190.3 tons, down 0.74 tons; daily average pig iron production was 228.01 tons, down 1.49 tons. In November 2025, national crude steel production was 69.9 million tons, down 2.1 million tons month - on - month and 8.5 million tons year - on - year. From January to November, cumulative production was 882 million tons, down 33.4 million tons or 3.65% year - on - year [59][62] - Steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, up 2.17 percentage points [63] 3.1.5 Inventory - Visible inventory: As of January 16, 2026, calculated visible inventory was 56.17 tons, up 1.13 tons, still at a high level compared to the same period [70] - 63 sample enterprises' inventory was 37.28 tons, down 0.97 tons [73] - In December, steel mill inventory average available days were 15.52 days, down 0.32 days, still at a relatively low level compared to the same period [76] 3.2 Silicon - Iron Report 3.2.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Last week, the silicon - iron futures price oscillated downward, down 56 yuan/ton or - 1.00% week - on - week. Technically, it showed a weak short - term trend. Watch the resistance levels at 5850 and 6000 yuan/ton and support levels at 5500 and 5450 yuan/ton [90] - Daily average pig iron production was 228.01 tons, down 1.49 tons; from January to December 2025, cumulative metal magnesium production was 87.31 tons, down 0.36 tons or 0.41% year - on - year; from January to November 2025, cumulative silicon - iron exports were 36.79 tons, down 2.77 tons or 7.01% year - on - year [92] - Inventory: Calculated visible inventory was 11.60 tons, down 1.12 tons, at a relatively low - neutral level compared to the same period [92] - Basis: Tianjin 72 silicon - iron spot price was 5800 yuan/ton (stable); futures price was 5570 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton; basis was 230 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton; basis rate was 3.97%, at a relatively high historical level [93] - Profit: Inner Mongolia's profit was - 233 yuan/ton (up 160 yuan/ton), Ningxia's was - 270 yuan/ton (stable), and Qinghai's was - 797 yuan/ton (stable) [93] - Cost: Inner Mongolia's production cost was 5553 yuan/ton (down 140 yuan/ton), Ningxia's was 5590 yuan/ton (stable), and Qinghai's was 6097 yuan/ton (stable) [93] - Supply: Weekly production was 9.87 tons, down 0.04 tons week - on - week, basically stable, at a relatively low level compared to the same period [93] 3.2.2 Spot and Futures Market - As of January 16, 2026, Tianjin 72 silicon - iron spot price was 5800 yuan/ton (stable); futures price was 5570 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton; basis was 230 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton; basis rate was 3.97%, at a relatively high level [99] 3.2.3 Profit and Cost - Production profit: Inner Mongolia was - 233 yuan/ton (up 160 yuan/ton), Ningxia was - 270 yuan/ton (stable), and Qinghai was - 797 yuan/ton (stable) [104] - Production cost: Northwest silicon stone price was 210 yuan/ton (stable), and semi - coke small material price was 780 yuan/ton (stable) [107] - Inner Mongolia's electricity price decreased by 0.0175 yuan/kWh. Inner Mongolia's production cost was 5553 yuan/ton (down 140 yuan/ton), Ningxia's was 5590 yuan/ton (stable), and Qinghai's was 6097 yuan/ton (stable) [110] 3.2.4 Supply and Demand - Total production: As of January 16, 2026, weekly production was 9.87 tons, down 0.04 tons week - on - week, basically stable, at a relatively low level compared to the same period. In December 2025, monthly production was 45.42 tons, down 1.69 tons month - on - month. From January to December 2025, cumulative production was down 3.77 tons or 0.67% year - on - year [115] - Steel procurement: Hebei Steel's January 2026 75B silicon - iron alloy procurement volume was 3313 tons, up 563 tons month - on - month and up 1130 tons year - on - year; procurement price was 5760 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton month - on - month [121] - Steel consumption: Daily average pig iron production was 228.01 tons, down 1.49 tons. In November 2025, national crude steel production was 69.9 million tons, down 2.1 million tons month - on - month and 8.5 million tons year - on - year. From January to November, cumulative production was 882 million tons, down 33.4 million tons or 3.65% year - on - year [124] - Non - steel consumption: From January to December 2025, cumulative metal magnesium production was 87.31 tons, down 0.36 tons or 0.41% year - on - year; as of January 16, 2026, metal magnesium price in Fugu was 16,550 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton [127] - From January to November 2025, cumulative silicon - iron exports were 36.79 tons, down 2.77 tons or 7.01% year - on - year; calculated export profit was - 77 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level compared to the same period [130] - From January to November 2025, overseas crude steel production was 767 million tons, up 1.7 million tons or 0.22% year - on - year [131] 3.2.5 Inventory - Visible inventory: As of January 16, 2026, calculated visible inventory was 11.60 tons, down 1.12 tons, at a relatively low - neutral level compared to the same period [138] - In December, steel mill inventory average available days were 15.41 days, down 0.39 days, still at a relatively low level compared to the same period [141]