镍周报：预期现实博弈持续，镍价高位震荡-20260117

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The nickel market shows a high - level volatile pattern with the game between expectations and reality. Different nickel - related products have different market trends. In the short term, high - nickel pig iron prices are expected to remain strong, while refined nickel is likely to experience wide - range fluctuations. [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Resource end: The nickel ore market is generally strong this week. Supply - side price support and cost increases are the core drivers. Philippine mines have firm quotes, and the HPM benchmark price in Indonesia has been significantly raised, pushing up the arrival cost of pyrometallurgical ore [11]. - Nickel iron: The price of domestic high - nickel pig iron has continued to rise sharply. The average price of SMM 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron has increased by 70 yuan/nickel point to 1017.5 yuan/nickel point (ex - factory tax included). Market circulation of goods is tight, and the price is supported by the futures market and downstream stainless - steel enterprises' profit improvement [11]. - Intermediate products: The nickel intermediate products maintain a pattern of "tight supply + high coefficient". MHP and high - grade nickel matte are both in short supply, but high prices suppress transactions. The price of auxiliary material sulfur is prone to rise [11]. - Refined nickel: The refined nickel market shows a typical volatile pattern of "strong - expectation pull - up and weak - reality suppression". The futures market is mainly driven by the expectation of tightened RKAB quotas in Indonesia in 2026. High inventory and weak demand lead to large fluctuations. Spot market premiums have declined slightly, and global visible inventory has increased. In the future, refined nickel is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The short - term price range of SHFE nickel is 140,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME 3M contract is 17,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures price trend: The report presents the price trends of nickel futures contracts, including LME 3 - month nickel and SHFE nickel [15]. - Spot premium: It shows the spot premiums of domestic and LME nickel, including premiums of RUSNICKEL and Jinchuan nickel [18]. - Secondary nickel price: The prices of nickel iron and sulfuric acid nickel and their premiums are presented [21]. 3. Cost Side - Nickel ore: Information on Philippine nickel ore exports, domestic imports, port inventories, and prices in Indonesia and the Philippines is provided [26][28][30]. - Nickel iron: The monthly production and production profits of nickel iron in Indonesia and China are shown [32][34]. - Intermediate products: The production, import volume, and prices of MHP and high - grade nickel matte in Indonesia and China are presented [36][38][40]. 4. Refined Nickel - Supply: In December 2025, the national refined nickel production was 29,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 666 tons. The report also shows the monthly production and enterprise operating rates [44][46]. - Demand: It presents the demand for refined nickel from the stainless - steel industry, manufacturing, and real - estate sectors, as well as related inventory data [47][49]. - Import and export: The import volume and import profit and loss of domestic refined nickel are shown [51]. - Inventory: This week, the global visible nickel inventory increased by 840 tons to 345,000 tons. The report also shows domestic and LME regional inventories [54][56]. - Cost: The production cost and profit rate of refined nickel by different raw materials and processes are presented [57]. 5. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - Supply: The production and net import volume of sulfuric acid nickel in China are shown [61]. - Demand: The demand for sulfuric acid nickel from ternary power batteries and ternary precursors is presented [64]. - Cost and price: The production cost, price, and profit rate of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel by different raw materials are shown [66]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance The report provides a detailed supply - demand balance table for nickel from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, including production, consumption, supply - demand gaps, and visible inventories of different nickel products globally and in China [69][70].