聚酯周报：化纤进一步减产，原料估值压缩-20260117

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Last week, PXN pulled back due to cooling commodity bullish sentiment and lack of further drivers, along with the polyester market entering the off - season. Currently, PX load remains high while downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. It is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. However, after the Spring Festival, both PX and downstream PTA are expected to have strong supply - demand, and the repair of PTA processing fees will further expand the space for PXN. Mid - term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [11]. - PTA: Last week, PTA processing fees fluctuated, and the upstream PXN was compressed. In the future, the supply side will maintain high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side, polyester and chemical fiber, will face great profit pressure and gradually reduce load due to the off - season. It is expected to enter the inventory accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. In terms of valuation, PTA processing fees have recovered to a normal level, and the PXN center has also risen. It will maintain fluctuations in the short term due to the off - season, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Mid - term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips and grasp the rhythm [12]. - MEG: In terms of industry fundamentals, the unexpected maintenance of foreign device loads has increased, while the domestic maintenance decline is still insufficient. The overall load is still high, and the import volume is expected to decline in January but the decline is limited. The port inventory accumulation cycle will continue. Mid - term, under the pressure of new device production, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction. The current valuation is neutral year - on - year. In the short term, beware of the rebound risk due to the tense situation in Iran. Mid - term, if there is no further domestic production reduction, the valuation is expected to be compressed [13]. Summaries According to the Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - PX: - Price Performance: The 03 contract fell 38 yuan to 7130 yuan last week. The spot CFR China price dropped 5 dollars to 881 dollars. The spot - converted basis fell 16 yuan to - 15 yuan as of January 15th, and the 3 - 5 spread fell 16 yuan to - 58 yuan [11]. - Supply: The domestic load was 89.4%, a 1.5% MoM decrease; the Asian load was 80.6%, a 0.6% MoM decrease. Zhejiang Petrochemical reduced its load, and overseas Thai PTTG and Israeli Gadiv plants restarted. In January, South Korea exported 14.6 tons of PX to China in the first ten days, a 0.7 - ton YoY increase [11]. - Demand: PTA load was 76.9%, a 1.3% MoM decrease. Dushan Energy increased its load, and Yisheng New Materials stopped production. The expected maintenance volume of PTA in January remains at the December level, and the overall load is still low [11]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 446 tons at the end of November, a 6 - ton increase. According to the balance sheet, inventory accumulation is expected to continue from January to February [11]. - Valuation and Cost: As of January 14th, PXN was 337 dollars, a 30 - dollar YoY decrease; the naphtha crack spread fell 9 dollars to 81 dollars, and crude oil fluctuated. The gasoline crack spread in the US and Asia was weak last week, and the aromatics spread remained low, with the relative value of blending oil being weak [11]. - PTA: - Price Performance: The 05 contract fell 38 yuan to 5048 yuan last week. The spot price in East China dropped 20 yuan to 5050 yuan. The spot basis rose 16 yuan to - 64 yuan as of January 15th, and the 5 - 9 spread fell 22 yuan to 38 yuan [12]. - Supply: PTA load was 76.9%, a 1.3% MoM decrease. Dushan Energy increased its load, and Yisheng New Materials stopped production. The expected maintenance volume of PTA in January remains at the December level, and the overall load is still low [12]. - Demand: Polyester load was 88.1%, a 2.7% MoM decrease. Among them, filament load was 88.8%, a 1.4% MoM decrease; staple fiber load was 97.6%, flat MoM; bottle chip load was 74.8%, a 0.1% MoM increase. In terms of terminals, finished product inventory increased, orders decreased, and the load of texturing, weaving, and polyester yarn all decreased [12]. - Inventory: As of January 9th, the overall PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 200.5 tons, a 2.5 - ton decrease. Polyester will gradually start maintenance in January, and PTA is expected to start accumulating inventory [12]. - Profit: The spot processing fee rose 15 yuan to 383 yuan/ton, and the futures processing fee fell 13 yuan to 371 yuan/ton as of January 15th [12]. - MEG: - Price Performance: The 05 contract fell 29 yuan to 3817 yuan last week. The spot price in East China dropped 21 yuan to 3696 yuan. The basis rose 3 yuan to - 140 yuan as of January 15th, and the 5 - 9 spread fell 20 yuan to - 111 yuan [13]. - Supply: EG load was 74.4%, a 0.3% MoM increase. Among them, syngas - based load was 80.2%, a 0.9% MoM increase; ethylene - based load was 71.2%, a 0.1% MoM decrease. Overseas, a Kuwaiti plant stopped production, and US Sasol reduced its load [13]. - Demand: Polyester load was 88.1%, a 2.7% MoM decrease. In terms of terminals, finished product inventory increased, orders decreased, and the load of texturing, weaving, and polyester yarn all decreased [13]. - Inventory: As of January 12th, port inventory was 80.2 tons, a 7.7 - ton increase; downstream factory inventory days were 14 days, a 0.7 - day decrease. In the short term, port inventory is expected to accumulate [13]. - Valuation and Cost: Naphtha - based profit decreased 180 yuan to - 937 yuan/ton, domestic ethylene - based profit rose 58 yuan to - 836 yuan/ton, and coal - based profit rose 95 yuan to 283 yuan/ton. The current overall valuation is neutral [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - PX: Basis fluctuated, and monthly spreads weakened. Trading volume and open interest data are presented in relevant charts [32][35]. - PTA: Basis weakened, and monthly spreads declined. Trading volume and open interest data are presented in relevant charts [40][47]. - MEG: Basis fluctuated, and monthly spreads were weak. Trading volume and open interest data are presented in relevant charts [56][64]. 3. p - Xylene Fundamentals - Capacity and Production: Domestic new capacities include FJDH (technical transformation), Huajin Aramco, and Yantai Yulongdao; overseas new capacity is IOC. The start - up rate in China and Asia has changed, and the import volume in November decreased slightly [74][80]. - Inventory: Social inventory increased slightly in November [83]. - Cost and Profit: PXN pulled back slightly, the short - process spread was high, and the naphtha crack spread fluctuated. The performance of gasoline in aromatics blending was weak [86][94]. 4. PTA Fundamentals - Capacity and Production: New capacities in 2025 include Honggang Petrochemical, Hailun Petrochemical, and Dushan Energy; in 2026, new capacities are from India Oil and GAIL. The load has changed, and the export volume data is provided [128]. - Inventory: There was phased inventory reduction [135]. - Profit and Valuation: Processing fees fluctuated after a rebound [138]. 5. Ethylene Glycol Fundamentals - Capacity and Production: New capacities in 2025 include Zhengdaikai, Yulong Petrochemical, and Yichang; in 2026, new capacities are from BASF, Tianying, Huajin Aramco, and Zhongsha Gulei. The start - up rate has changed, and the import volume decreased in November [142]. - Inventory: Port inventory increased slightly this week (the statistical caliber has changed) [155]. - Cost and Profit: Coal prices fluctuated weakly, ethylene prices fell, and the profit was moderately low [166][169]. 6. Polyester and End - users - Polyester: There will be more new capacity put into production in the first half of 2026. The start - up rate decreased seasonally, the export data in November increased both YoY and MoM, the filament inventory was at a low level, the filament profit recovered slightly [186][188][194]. - End - users: The start - up rate decreased, and the year - on - year decline rate was relatively slow. Orders decreased, inventory increased, and raw material inventory decreased. The domestic demand growth rate of textile and clothing recovered, while exports were weak. The US clothing wholesale inventory was lower than the pre - pandemic high [210][217][220].