双焦周报：预计盘面仍呈现偏强震荡，注意短期市场情绪冲击及高波风险-20260117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment for commodities is expected to remain bullish, but the main focus will be on precious metals and non-ferrous metals. Other sectors will be more influenced by the spill - over of market sentiment [18]. - In the short - term, the prices of coking coal and coke are expected to show a moderately strong oscillating trend. However, attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment and the current high volatility risk [18]. - The supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is marginally loosening, but considering the pre - holiday restocking, the relationship between coking coal, coke, and downstream hot metal remains relatively balanced. Steel enterprises have low expectations for the future market and weak restocking willingness [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: Last week, coking coal futures prices rose at the beginning of the week, hit the upper pressure level, and then oscillated downward, with a weekly decline of 22 yuan/ton or - 1.84%. Coking coal futures are in a daily - level rebound cycle. Coking coke futures prices also showed a slight oscillating downward trend last week, with a weekly decline of 30.5 yuan/ton or - 1.74%. Coking coke prices are approaching the long - term downward trend line since October 2021 [11][16]. - Weekly Key Points Summary: - Spot Prices and Basis: Coking coal spot prices generally increased, and most varieties had positive basis. Coking coke spot prices remained stable, and the basis showed a discount situation [17]. - Variety Positions: The positions of the main coking coal contract are at a high level in the same period of the past six years, and the non - main contracts in March and April also have abnormally high positions. Attention should be paid to the pressure of warehouse receipts after price increases [17]. - Domestic Production: The daily average production of clean coal from 523 sample mines increased by 3.42 tons week - on - week, but the cumulative production decreased by about 810,000 tons or - 3.29% year - on - year [17]. - Overseas Imports: The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port has decreased to 169,000 tons/day but is still at a high level. The import profit of Australian Peak View hard coking coal is - 118 yuan/ton, and the import window is still closed [17]. - Demand: The daily average coke production of 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants decreased by 0.28 tons. The daily average hot metal production of steel enterprises decreased by 1.49 tons, and the steel mill profit margin increased by 2.17%. The apparent consumption of five major steel products increased, and the inventory decreased slightly but was still higher than the same period last year [17]. - Supply - Demand Structure: The daily average supply of coking coal increased, while the demand decreased, and the supply - demand structure was marginally loosened. The daily average demand for coking coke was slightly lower than the production, and the supply - demand structure also showed marginal looseness [18]. - Inventory: The total coking coal inventory increased by 421,000 tons, and the total coking coke inventory increased by 43,100 tons. The inventory of coking coal and coke is being transferred from upstream to downstream [18]. 3.2 Futures - Spot Market - Coking Coal Spot Prices: As of January 16, 2026, the prices of skeleton coking coal such as low - sulfur, medium - sulfur, and high - sulfur main coking coal increased significantly, while the prices of 1/3 coking coal, lean coal, and gas coal increased slightly. The prices of different coking coal varieties in different regions also showed varying degrees of increase [22][24][27]. - Coking Coke Spot Prices: As of January 16, 2026, the prices of coking coke in Rizhao Port and Lvliang remained stable [33]. - Coking Coal Basis: As of January 16, 2026, Shanxi low - sulfur main coking coal and Jinquan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal had positive basis, and the basis increased compared with the previous period [40]. - Coking Coal Calendar Spread: As of January 16, 2026, the 5 - 9 spread of coking coal was - 82 yuan/ton, and coking coal maintained a Contango structure [43]. - Coking Coke Basis: As of January 16, 2026, Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke and Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke had negative basis, and the basis increased compared with the previous period [46]. - Coking Coke Calendar Spread: As of January 16, 2026, the 5 - 9 spread of coking coke was - 79.5 yuan/ton, and coking coke maintained a Contango structure [49]. 3.3 Positions and Variety Ratios - Variety Positions: As of January 16, 2026, the total unilateral positions of coking coal were 617,800 lots, a decrease of 23,600 lots week - on - week, and the positions were still at a relatively high historical level. The unilateral positions of coking coke were 40,300 lots, an increase of 100 lots week - on - week [58]. - Variety Ratios: This week, coking coal performed slightly weaker than iron ore and hot - rolled coils, and the ratio of coking coal to iron ore is still at a low historical level. Iron ore and hot - rolled coils were also slightly stronger than coking coke, and the ratio of coking coke to iron ore is also at a low historical level [65][68]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Domestic Coking Coal Production: As of January 16, 2026, the daily average production of clean coal from 523 sample mines was 768,500 tons, an increase of 34,200 tons week - on - week, and the production continued to recover. The daily average production of clean coal from 314 sample coal washing plants was 273,500 tons, an increase of 12,300 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative production increased year - on - year [73][75]. - Imported Coking Coal: As of January 10, 2026, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased to 169,000 tons/day but was still at a high level. In 2025, China's cumulative imports of Mongolian coking coal increased year - on - year. The import profit of Australian coking coal was negative, and the import window was closed. In 2025, China's cumulative imports of Australian coking coal decreased year - on - year. The imports of Russian and Canadian coking coal increased in 2025 compared with the previous year, while the imports of US coking coal decreased significantly [78][81][84]. - Coking Coke Production: As of January 16, 2026, the daily average coke production of 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants decreased, and the coking profit of independent coking plants was - 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [90]. - Downstream Steel Industry: As of January 16, 2026, the daily average hot metal production of 247 steel enterprises decreased, and the steel mill profit margin increased. The estimated profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils on the futures market improved. The apparent consumption of five major steel products increased, and the inventory decreased slightly but was still higher than the same period last year [96][102][106]. - Supply - Demand Structure: The daily average supply of coking coal increased, while the demand decreased, and the supply - demand structure was marginally loosened. The daily average demand for coking coke was slightly lower than the production, and the supply - demand structure also showed marginal looseness [108]. 3.5 Inventory - Inventory Overview: As of January 16, 2026, the total coking coal inventory increased by 421,000 tons, and the total coking coke inventory increased by 43,100 tons. The inventory transfer from upstream to downstream continued [112]. - Coking Coal Inventory: The inventory of sample mines decreased, while the inventories of independent coking plants and steel mills increased, and the port inventory decreased slightly [112]. - Coking Coke Inventory: The inventory of independent coking plants decreased, while the inventories of steel mills and ports increased [112].