PVC周报：出口退税取消，短期进入抢出口窗口期-20260117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic PVC market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with poor fundamentals. Although short - term electricity price expectations and the rush to export may support PVC prices, in the medium term, the strategy of short - selling on rallies should be adopted before substantial industry production cuts [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost and Profit: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2,400 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2,805 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan week - on - week; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 820 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has declined to a low level again, while the profit of ethylene - based production has increased, with the current valuation being moderately low [11]. - Supply: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 79.6%, unchanged from the previous week. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 80%, up 0.3% from the previous week; the ethylene method is 78.8%, down 0.8% from the previous week. The supply - side load was flat last week, with the loads of Fujian Wanhua, Yibin Tianyuan, and Salt Lake Magnesium Industry decreasing. The load is expected to decline next week. The overall load in January is still expected to be high, with a small reduction in production and high supply pressure [11]. - Demand: It is currently the off - season for exports, but the export tax rebate policy is planned to be cancelled on April 1st, leading to a short - term rush to export. The operating rates of the three major downstream sectors remained stable. The pipe load is 35.4%, unchanged from the previous week; the film load is 66.4%, unchanged from the previous week; the profile load is 29.9%, down 0.3% from the previous week. The overall downstream load is 43.9%, down 0.1% from the previous week, and the overall downstream operating rate is gradually entering the off - season. Last week, the PVC pre - sales volume was 92.6 million tons, up 1.7 million tons from the previous week [11]. - Inventory: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 31.1 million tons, with a destocking of 1.7 million tons from the previous week; the social inventory was 114.4 million tons, with a stockpiling of 3 million tons from the previous week; the overall inventory was 145.5 million tons, with a stockpiling of 1.3 million tons from the previous week; the number of warehouse receipts decreased. Currently, inventory is turning to stockpiling. In the context of strong supply and weak demand, domestic demand has entered the off - season. Short - term exports may surge due to the rush to export, but there is significant medium - term export pressure, making it difficult to digest the high production volume [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - The content mainly includes multiple charts such as PVC term structure, East China SG - 5 price, spot basis, 5 - 9 spread, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume, showing the historical trends of these data from 2022 to 2026 [15][19][24][26] 3.3. Profit and Inventory - The content presents various charts related to inventory, including in - factory inventory, ethylene - based in - factory inventory, calcium carbide - based in - factory inventory, social inventory, the sum of factory and social inventories, and warehouse receipts, as well as charts related to profit, such as the comprehensive profit of Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integration, calcium carbide - based PVC profit, ethylene - based PVC profit, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide profit, showing their historical trends from 2022 to 2026 [31][33][39][41] 3.4. Cost Side - Calcium Carbide: Calcium carbide prices in Wuhai and Shandong are presented in the chart, along with the inventory and operating rate of calcium carbide, showing their historical trends from 2022 to 2026. The calcium carbide price is currently stable [47][48] - Other Raw Materials: The chart shows the price trends of Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke, 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, liquid chlorine in Shandong, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price [55] 3.5. Supply Side - Capacity: The historical trend of PVC capacity and the PVC production capacity put into operation in 2025 are presented, including information on specific production facilities, production processes, production capacities, and commissioning times, with a total capacity of 2.5 million tons/year in 2025 [59][63] - Operating Rate: The operating rates of calcium carbide - based PVC, ethylene - based PVC, and overall PVC, as well as the weekly PVC production volume, are presented, showing their historical trends from 2022 to 2026 [68][69] 3.6. Demand Side - Domestic Demand: The operating rates of PVC downstream sectors such as pipes, films, and profiles are presented, showing their historical trends from 2022 to 2026. The overall downstream operating rate is gradually entering the off - season, with the pipe load at 35.4%, the film load at 66.4%, the profile load at 29.9%, and the overall downstream load at 43.9% [74][75] - Export Demand: The export volume of PVC, the export volume to India, and the pre - sales volume are presented, showing their historical trends. Currently, it is the off - season for exports, but the export tax rebate policy cancellation on April 1st will lead to a short - term rush to export [77][82] - Related Indicators: The chart shows the rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's housing completion area, which is related to PVC demand [84]