沥青周报 2026/01/17：短期观望-20260117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term outlook: Hold [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the medium - term, it is likely that the asphalt valuation will decline in the second half of the year. The return of major refinery production capacity and the seasonal off - peak valuation period are expected to limit the upward space of asphalt valuation. The weak and volatile cost side of crude oil will also restrict the upward space of asphalt's unilateral price [16]. - In the short - term, due to Venezuela's ongoing production increase and the release of its maritime inventory, which will suppress asphalt prices, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendations - Market Review: The price trend of the asphalt's main contract in recent months is presented, with supply - demand and cost factors marked at different time points [13][14]. - Medium - term Impact Factor Assessment: In terms of supply, imports are expected to remain low, and major refineries are expected to resume some production, which will limit the upward movement of asphalt valuation, while local refineries are expected to remain relatively sluggish in the short - to - medium - term. In terms of demand, the start - up rate of the demand side has improved slightly compared to previous years, but the overall asphalt shipment volume is lower than expected, and the overall demand is expected to be flat after the infrastructure seasonal peak. In terms of cost, the upward space of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited, and the central range of wide - range fluctuations in oil prices is expected to move down slightly [16]. - Short - term Factor Assessment: Supply is neutral - bearish as the heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate is rising and overall imports remain strong; demand is bearish as the start - up rates of all sub - sectors on the demand side are weak and the downstream shipment is dull; inventory is neutral - bearish (partially priced in) as there is a problem of weak de - stocking in the overall inventory and the domestic total inventory exceeds expectations; the cost of crude oil is expected to stop falling and stabilize, entering a weak - fluctuation process [17]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Markets - Spot Prices: The spot price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China regions are analyzed [20][22][24]. - Basis Trends: The basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions are presented [32]. - Term Structure: The term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contracts are analyzed [34]. 3.3 Supply Side - Capacity Utilization and Profits: The capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt and the production profit margins of Shandong asphalt are analyzed, along with the relationships between asphalt start - up, profit, and crude oil price [41][44][45]. - Imports: The import volume, import profit, and cumulative import volume of asphalt from different countries are presented, as well as the monthly import volume of Venezuelan oil [49][50][53]. - Valuation Ratios: The valuation ratios of fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent are analyzed [56]. - Refinery Profits: The refining profit margins of major refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the start - up rate and production profit margin of petroleum coke, are analyzed [59][62]. 3.4 Inventory - Domestic Inventory: The trends of domestic factory inventory, social inventory, total inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory are analyzed [66][67]. - Warehouse Receipts: The trends of asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the main asphalt contract are presented [70]. - Inventory and Price: The relationships between inventory, profit, and price are analyzed [72][74]. 3.5 Demand Side - Enterprise Shipment Volume: The asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese, Shandong, East China, and North China sample enterprises are analyzed [78][80][83]. - Downstream Start - up Rates: The start - up rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes are analyzed [86][88][92]. - Highway Investment: The cumulative investment in highway construction and the monthly year - on - year and monthly values of public fiscal expenditures on transportation are analyzed, as well as the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditures [93][96][100]. - Road - related Machinery: The monthly sales volumes and working hours of road - related machinery such as rollers and excavators are analyzed [101][105]. - Related Consumption: The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment in railway, road, and water conservancy industries, as well as the cumulative issuance of local government special bonds, are analyzed [108][109]. 3.6 Related Indicators - Positions, Trading Volumes, and Price Volatility: The trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures are analyzed [114][117][119]. 3.7 Industry Chain Structure Diagram - Crude Oil Industry Chain: The exploration and production links of the crude oil industry chain are presented [123][124]. - Asphalt Industry Chain: The production processes and uses of asphalt are introduced [125][127].