铂族金属周报：美国铂钯进口关税政策暂缓，现货驱动减弱-20260117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's implementation of a temporary suspension of key metal tariffs this week has alleviated the tightness in the platinum and palladium spot market, causing the price increase to slow down. The "temporary suspension order" has led to the regression of the premium supported by tariffs, and the price difference between the two regions is returning to the historical average. The easing of the driving force for spot inflows into the US has also reduced the shortage of overseas platinum - group metal spot. In terms of macro - driving factors, the increasing probability of Kevin Warsh, who is more rational in monetary policy, becoming the new Fed Chairman has short - term suppression on the upward driving force of the precious metals sector. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards platinum and palladium strategies [9][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Market Outlook - From January 9th to 16th, 2026, the price of the main palladium contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 0.16% to 469.35 yuan/gram, and the price of the main platinum contract rose 4.46% to 610.05 yuan/gram. This week, the price of the main NYMEX platinum contract rose 2.86% to $2342.9 per ounce, and the price of the main NYMEX palladium contract fell 1.47% to $1846.5 per ounce [10][12] - The data shows various changes in platinum and palladium such as closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, CFTC positions, and ETF holdings from January 9th to 16th, 2026 [12] 3.2 Market Review - Platinum Price: This week, the price of the main NYMEX platinum contract rose 2.86% to $2342.9 per ounce, and the total open interest as of the latest reporting period on January 13th was 65,949 lots. As of January 16th, the spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 602.46 yuan/gram, and the premium of the domestic platinum market has significantly recovered due to the adjustment of the import VAT exemption policy. As of January 16th, the one - month implied lease rate of platinum spot was 18.48%. On January 13th, the net long position of NYMEX platinum managed funds increased from 7,337 lots to 7,536 lots [17][21][22][25] - Palladium Price: This week, the price of the main NYMEX palladium contract fell 1.47% to $1846.5 per ounce, and the total open interest as of the latest reporting period on January 13th was 18,156 lots. As of January 16th, the one - month implied lease rate of palladium was 6.41%. The current net position of palladium managed funds is a net short of 96 lots [18][22][28] - CFTC Platinum and Palladium Commercial Net Short Positions: Relevant data and charts are presented, but no specific summary data is provided in the text [29][30] - Price Ratios: Charts of platinum - palladium and platinum - silver price ratios are presented, but no specific summary data is provided in the text [32][33] 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - Platinum ETF Holdings: As of January 16th, the total holdings of major overseas platinum ETFs were 75.96 tons [39] - Palladium ETF Holdings: As of January 16th, the total holdings of major overseas palladium ETFs were 15.56 tons [42] - Platinum Inventory: The inventory of the US platinum exchange remains at a high level. As of January 16th, the CME platinum inventory was 20.64 tons [46] - Palladium Inventory: The CME palladium inventory has continued to decline, reaching 6.44 tons as of January 16th [51] 3.4 Supply and Demand - Mineral Platinum: The platinum production forecast of the top 15 global mines shows that the platinum production of these mines in 2026 will reach 124.24 tons, a 2.5% decrease compared to 127.47 tons in 2025 [56][57] - Mineral Palladium: The production data of the top 10 global palladium mines shows that the palladium production of these mines in 2026 will reach 147.73 tons, a 1.1% decrease compared to 149.37 tons in 2025 [59] - China's Platinum Imports: As of November, China's cumulative platinum imports reached 91.64 tons, a slight 4.82% year - on - year decrease [62] - China's Palladium Imports: China's cumulative palladium imports were 31.21 tons, a 19.71% year - on - year increase [65] - Automobile Production: Data on automobile production in China, Japan, Germany, and the US are presented, including production volume and year - on - year changes, but no specific summary data is provided in the text [66][69][71] - Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: Global platinum and palladium supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2025 are presented, showing supply and demand data in different years [75][76] 3.5 Monthly Spread and Cross - Market Spread - NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spread: Charts of NYMEX platinum 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, and 10 - 1 spreads are presented, but no specific summary data is provided in the text [79][80] - NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spread: Charts of NYMEX palladium 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, and 12 - 3 spreads are presented, but no specific summary data is provided in the text [87][89][93] - Cross - Market Spread: Charts of the price difference between the London spot platinum price and the NYMEX platinum price, and the price difference between the London spot palladium price and the NYMEX palladium price are presented, but no specific summary data is provided in the text [94]