铁矿石周报 2026/01/17：市场情绪波动，矿价震荡调整-20260117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - With the end of the year - end shipping rush by mines, the latest overseas iron ore shipments continued to decline week - on - week. The supply pressure may be marginally reduced as overseas shipments enter the off - season. The limited resumption of hot metal production and the unresolved inventory structural issues, along with the pre - festival restocking by steel mills and the relatively warm market atmosphere, support the iron ore price. However, there is a lack of new marginal drivers. As market sentiment fluctuates, the iron ore price may experience some shock adjustments at high levels. Future attention should be paid to the restocking of steel mills and the rhythm of hot metal production [13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The global total iron ore shipments were 31.809 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32,800 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 26.064 million tons, a decrease of 1.364 million tons. Australia's shipments were 19.316 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons, and the amount shipped to China was 16.52 million tons, an increase of 36,700 tons. Brazil's shipments were 6.748 million tons, a decrease of 1.283 million tons. The total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 30.15 million tons, an increase of 1.903 million tons; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 29.204 million tons, an increase of 1.64 million tons [13]. - Demand: The daily average hot metal output was 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 14,900 tons from last week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points [13]. - Inventory: The total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports nationwide was 172.887 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.4426 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3502 million tons, a decrease of 19,400 tons [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Difference: The PB - Super Special powder price difference was 126 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton. The Carajás - PB powder price difference was 81 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton. The Carajás - Jinbuba powder price difference was 136 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price difference was - 22.5 yuan/ton, with no change [19][22]. - Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel: The pellet feed ratio was 14.59%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points. The lump ore feed ratio was 11.63%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points. The sinter feed ratio was 73.78%, an increase of 0.64 percentage points. The Tangshan scrap steel price was 2,155 yuan/ton, with no change. The Zhangjiagang scrap steel price was 2,110 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [25]. - Profit: The steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points from last week. The PB powder import profit was 23.21 yuan/wet ton [28]. 3.3 Inventory - The imported iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 165.551 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7984 million tons. The pellet inventory was 391,000 tons, an increase of 46,210 tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory was 1.52971 million tons, an increase of 66,940 tons. The lump ore inventory was 2.15413 million tons, an increase of 38,750 tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 73.8921 million tons, an increase of 2.0387 million tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 57.0714 million tons, an increase of 432,400 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 92.6222 million tons, an increase of 2.7263 million tons from last week [35][38][41][46]. 3.4 Supply Side - Overseas Shipments: The latest 19 - port Australian shipments to China were 15.933 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 39,500 tons. Brazilian shipments were 6.643 million tons, a decrease of 1.282 million tons. Rio Tinto's shipments to China were 5.085 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 414,000 tons. BHP's shipments to China were 4.555 million tons, a decrease of 409,000 tons. Vale's shipments were 5.896 million tons, an increase of 271,000 tons. FMG's shipments to China were 3.914 million tons, an increase of 1.148 million tons [51][54][57]. - Arrivals and Imports: The latest 45 - port arrivals were 29.204 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.64 million tons. In November, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 19.0041 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 845,000 tons [60]. - Domestic Mines: The latest domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 59.72%, an increase of 1.31 percentage points. The daily average iron concentrate powder output of domestic mines was 46,670 tons, an increase of 10,200 tons [66]. 3.5 Demand Side - The domestic daily average hot metal output was 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 14,900 tons from last week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points. The 45 - port daily average iron ore port clearance volume was 3.1989 million tons, a decrease of 33,800 tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.8184 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,400 tons [71][74]. 3.6 Basis - As of January 16, the calculated iron ore BRBF basis was 38.72 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 4.55% [79].