Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the market sentiment fluctuated significantly, with lithium carbonate rising first and then falling. Affected by the adjustment of the battery export tax - rebate policy, the lithium price broke through the 170,000 - yuan mark at the beginning of the week. However, the sentiment in the commodity market weakened in the middle of the week, with more profit - taking orders from lithium carbonate bulls, and it closed at the daily limit down on Friday, with the total open interest decreasing by 17.5% during the week. The expectation of fundamental improvement has been fully traded. If the increase in lithium price is transmitted to the end - users, the increase in battery cost will suppress some energy - storage demand, and the current price still has a certain emotional premium. Due to the large price fluctuations of lithium carbonate recently and many disturbances from the industrial and macro aspects, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. Pay attention to the market atmosphere, demand policies, downstream acceptance willingness, and changes in open interest on the trading board [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Periodic and Spot Market: On January 16, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 148,681 yuan in the evening session, with a weekly increase of 6.86%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 149,000 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2605 on the GZFE was 146,200 yuan, with a weekly increase of 1.94% [12]. - Supply: On January 16, SMM reported that the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate was 22,605 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.3% [12]. - Demand: According to CAAM, in December, the production and sales of domestic new - energy vehicles reached 1.718 million and 1.71 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.3% and 7.2% respectively. The sales of new - energy vehicles accounted for 52.3% of the total sales of new vehicles. In 2025, the production and sales of domestic new - energy vehicles reached 16.626 million and 11.649 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 29% and 28.2% respectively. The sales of new - energy vehicles accounted for 47.9% of the total sales of new vehicles, 7 percentage points higher than the previous year. According to the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in December, the combined output of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 201.7 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. From January to December, the cumulative output of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 1,755.6 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 60.1%. The first quarter is a critical window period for "grabbing exports" of batteries, and the demand in the off - season is expected to increase. The decline in material production scheduling is narrower than previously expected [12]. - Inventory: On January 15, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 109,679 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 263 tons (- 0.2%). The inventory days of lithium carbonate were about 28 days. On January 16, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the GZFE were 27,458 tons, a weekly increase of 8.3% [12]. - Cost: The change in lithium salt prices is transmitted upstream. On January 16, the quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 2,070 - 2,100 US dollars per ton, with a weekly increase of 6.92%. As the lithium price falls, pay attention to the changes in the willingness of mining enterprises to support prices and release goods [12]. 2. Periodic and Spot Market - On January 16, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 148,681 yuan in the evening session, with a weekly increase of 6.86%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 149,000 yuan. The closing price of LC2605 on the GZFE was 146,200 yuan, with a weekly increase of 1.94% [20]. - The average discount in the standard electric - carbon trading market on the exchange is - 1,400 yuan (referring to the main contract LC2605). The net short - position of the main seats in the lithium carbonate contract has increased [23]. - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 9,000 yuan [27]. 3. Supply Side - On January 16, SMM reported that the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate was 22,605 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. In December 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 99,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.0%, a year - on - year increase of 42.4%, and an annual year - on - year increase of 43.6% [32]. - In December, the output of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 60,850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.4%, a year - on - year increase of 48.7%, and an annual year - on - year increase of 70.3%. The output of lithium carbonate from lithium mica was 13,350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%, and an annual year - on - year increase of 17.4% [35]. - In December, the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes increased by 3.1% month - on - month to 14,990 tons, with an annual year - on - year increase of 15.1%. The output of lithium carbonate from the recycling end was 10,010 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.9%, and an annual year - on - year increase of 27.3% [38]. - In November 2025, China imported 22,055 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. From January to November, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 219,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.8%. In November 2025, the export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was 18,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28%, of which the volume exported to China was 14,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9%. From January to November 2025, Chile exported a total of 207,400 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year decrease of 6%, of which the volume exported to China was 151,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15%. In November 2025, Chile exported 10,132 tons of lithium sulfate, all of which were exported to China, a month - on - month increase of 493%. From January to November 2025, Chile exported a total of 82,000 tons of lithium sulfate, a year - on - year increase of 33% [41]. 4. Demand Side - The battery field dominates lithium demand. In 2024, the global consumption accounted for 87%. The main growth point of future lithium salt consumption still depends on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while the traditional application fields have limited proportion and weak growth. The proportion of lithium used in fields such as ceramic glass, lubricants, flux powders, air - conditioners, and medicine is only 5% [45]. - According to CAAM, in December, the production and sales of domestic new - energy vehicles reached 1.718 million and 1.71 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.3% and 7.2% respectively. The sales of new - energy vehicles accounted for 52.3% of the total sales of new vehicles. In 2025, the production and sales of domestic new - energy vehicles reached 16.626 million and 11.649 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 29% and 28.2% respectively. The sales of new - energy vehicles accounted for 47.9% of the total sales of new vehicles, 7 percentage points higher than the previous year [48]. - From January to November, the cumulative sales of new - energy vehicles in Europe were 3.423 million, a year - on - year increase of 29.3%, with a market penetration rate of 28.3%. From January to November, the cumulative sales of new - energy vehicles in the United States were 1.405 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%, with a market penetration rate of 9.55%, lower than 9.71% in the same period of the previous year [51]. - According to the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in December, the combined output of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 201.7 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. From January to December, the cumulative output of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 1,755.6 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 60.1%. In December, the installed capacity of domestic power batteries was 98.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.9% and a year - on - year increase of 35.1%. From January to December, the cumulative installed capacity of domestic power batteries was 769.7 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.4% [54]. - In 2025, the annual output of domestic lithium iron phosphate increased by 58.8% year - on - year, and the output of domestic ternary materials increased by 23.5% year - on - year. The first quarter is a critical window period for "grabbing exports" of batteries, and the demand in the off - season is expected to increase. The decline in material production scheduling is narrower than previously expected [57]. 5. Inventory - On January 15, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 109,679 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 263 tons (- 0.2%). The inventory days of lithium carbonate were about 28 days. On January 16, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the GZFE were 27,458 tons, a weekly increase of 8.3% [64]. - Driven by the "grabbing export" demand, the inventory of cathode materials has decreased. The inventories of power batteries and energy - storage batteries are at recent lows [67]. 6. Cost Side - The change in lithium salt prices is transmitted upstream. On January 16, the quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 2,070 - 2,100 US dollars per ton, with a weekly increase of 6.92%. As the lithium price falls, pay attention to the changes in the willingness of mining enterprises to support prices and release goods [74]. - In November, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 678,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.4% and a month - on - month increase of 27.6%. From January to November, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 5.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.0%. From January to November, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 8.5% year - on - year, and the import of lithium concentrate from Africa increased by 6.4% year - on - year. The supply of high - cost hard - rock mines is accelerating, and the import of lithium mines is significantly supplemented [77].
碳酸锂周报 2026/01/17：情绪降温-20260117
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-17 14:01