工业硅&多晶硅周报 2026/01/17：工业硅供需双降，震荡偏弱；多晶硅供给收缩，波动运行-20260117

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is expected to experience a supply - demand double decline and fluctuate weakly. The supply of polysilicon is shrinking, and it will operate with fluctuations [16][18]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Demand: Polysilicon weekly output was 22,000 tons, down week - on - week. DMC output was 43,600 tons, a decrease of 400 tons week - on - week. From January to November, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 17.456 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.895 million tons or 19.88%. From January to November, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 651,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12,400 tons or 1.95% [14]. - Inventory: As of January 16, 2026, the industrial silicon inventory was 510,400 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons week - on - week. Factory inventory was 263,000 tons, down 3,900 tons week - on - week; market inventory was 191,000 tons, unchanged; registered warehouse receipt inventory was 56,400 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons week - on - week [14]. - Price and Cost: The spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,650 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,850 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The futures main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,605 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton week - on - week. The cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,487.50 yuan/ton, Yunnan was 9,720.00 yuan/ton, Sichuan was 9,600.00 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia was 8,960.00 yuan/ton [15]. - Supply: The weekly output of industrial silicon was 78,400 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons week - on - week [15]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Industrial Silicon: As of January 16, 2026, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,650 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,850 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The futures main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,605 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 553 (non - oxygenated) had a premium of 595 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis ratio of 6.47%; the 421 had a premium of 245 yuan/ton over the main contract, with a basis ratio of 2.77% [23]. - Polysilicon: As of January 16, 2026, the average price of polysilicon N - type re -投料 was 54.85 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg week - on - week; the average price of N - type dense material was 54.35 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1 yuan/kg week - on - week. The futures main contract (PS2605) closed at 50,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,100 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis of the main contract was 4,650 yuan/ton, with a basis ratio of 8.48% [26]. 3. Industrial Silicon - Total Output: As of January 16, 2026, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 78,400 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons week - on - week. In December 2025, the output of industrial silicon was 355,900 tons, a decrease of 4,200 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to December 2025 decreased by 652,300 tons or 13.86% year - on - year [31]. - Output in Main Producing Areas: Relevant graphs show the output trends of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu [30][33][35]. - Production Cost: As of January 16, 2026, the electricity price and silicon stone price in the main producing areas were unchanged week - on - week. The silicon coal price in the main producing areas was also unchanged week - on - week. The average cost in Xinjiang was 8,487.50 yuan/ton, Yunnan was 9,720.00 yuan/ton, Sichuan was 9,600.00 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia was 8,960.00 yuan/ton [43][46]. - Visible Inventory: As of January 16, 2026, the industrial silicon inventory was 510,400 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons week - on - week. Factory inventory was 263,000 tons, down 3,900 tons week - on - week; market inventory was 191,000 tons, unchanged; registered warehouse receipt inventory was 56,400 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons week - on - week [49]. 4. Polysilicon - Output: As of January 16, 2026, the weekly output of polysilicon was 22,000 tons, down week - on - week. In December 2025, the output of polysilicon was 115,500 tons, an increase of 900 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to December 2025 was 1.3052 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.46% [54]. - Capacity Utilization and Scheduling: In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of polysilicon was 42.23%, a decrease of 1.95 percentage points month - on - month. It is predicted that the output of polysilicon in January 2026 will continue to decline [57]. - Inventory: As of January 16, 2026, the factory inventory of polysilicon was 316,800 tons, and the SMM -口径 inventory was 321,000 tons [60]. - Cost and Profit: As of January 16, 2026, the production cost of polysilicon was 42,969.05 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was 16,241.47 yuan/ton [63]. - Silicon Wafer: The weekly output of silicon wafers was 10.83 GW, a slight increase week - on - week. In December 2025, the output of silicon wafers was 43.9 GW, a decrease of 10.47 GW month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to December 2025 was 647.09 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 0.46%. The inventory of silicon wafers was 24.78 GW, down week - on - week. It is predicted that the output of silicon wafers in January 2026 will be 45.2 GW, basically unchanged month - on - month [66][69]. - Battery Cell: In December 2025, the output of battery cells was 46.76 GW, a decrease of 8.85 GW month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic batteries was 47.11%, a decrease of 8.93 percentage points month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to December 2025 was 669.48 GW, a year - on - year increase of 1.95%. The inventory of photovoltaic battery export factories was 9.04 GW, an increase week - on - week. It is expected that the output of battery cells in January 2026 will be 39.36 GW, a significant decrease month - on - month [75][78]. - Module: In December 2025, the output of modules was 38.7 GW, a decrease of 8.2 GW month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of modules was 37.57%, a decrease of 8.14 percentage points month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to December 2025 was 563.2 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. The finished product inventory of photovoltaic modules was 30.4 GW, basically unchanged week - on - week. It is predicted that the output of modules in January 2026 will be 32.47 GW, a decrease from December [83][86]. 5. Silicone - Output: As of January 16, 2026, the output of DMC was 43,600 tons, a decrease of 400 tons week - on - week. In December 2025, the output of DMC was 204,800 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to December 2025 was 2.477 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.93% [93]. - Price and Profit: As of January 16, 2026, the average price of silicone was 13,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton week - on - week. The gross profit of DMC was 1,921.88 yuan/ton [96]. - Inventory: As of January 16, 2026, the DMC inventory was 43,300 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons week - on - week [99]. 6. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Exports - Aluminum Alloy: As of January 16, 2026, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 24,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 23,890 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan/ton week - on - week. From January to November, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 17.456 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.895 million tons or 19.88%. The capacity utilization rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58.6%, and the capacity utilization rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 58% [104][107]. - Exports: From January to November, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 651,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12,400 tons or 1.95% [110].