策略周报：股市流动性的最新变化-20260117

Core Conclusions - Since mid-December last year, broad-based ETFs, flexible foreign capital, and leveraged funds have successively propelled the spring market rally [1] - Currently, there is net redemption in ETFs, a slowdown in the inflow of flexible foreign capital, and the inflow rate of leveraged funds has been too fast, which may put pressure on the short-term stock market liquidity [2] - The spring market rally is not over, and short-term fluctuations may present layout opportunities, with a balanced allocation structure, focusing on technology applications and upstream cycles, while paying attention to real estate and other traditional assets [1][3] Market Liquidity Changes - Since December 17, 2025, the A-share broad index has continued to rise, with the spring market gradually unfolding. The micro-funding environment has seen broad-based ETFs, flexible foreign capital, and leveraged funds play a supportive role [12] - In December, broad-based ETFs saw significant inflows, with a total net inflow exceeding 100 billion yuan, significantly higher than the -14.2 billion yuan in November. The ETF linked to the CSI A500 index contributed the majority of the subscription scale [12] - The strengthening of the RMB has catalyzed the inflow of flexible foreign capital into A-shares, with an estimated net inflow of at least 13.5 billion yuan in December, despite overall foreign capital being net outflow [12] Recent Changes in Micro-Funding - Recent weeks have seen new changes in the micro-funding environment, with net redemptions in ETFs and a slowdown in the inflow rate of flexible foreign capital. As of mid-January, broad-based ETFs have seen a cumulative net redemption of about 200 billion yuan [22] - The inflow rate of short-term leveraged funds has been too fast, with the financing balance exceeding 2.7 trillion yuan, creating historical highs. The average daily net buying amount since January 15 has reached 19.7 billion yuan, significantly higher than the 2.9 billion yuan in December [13][23] Spring Market Outlook - The current spring market rally is characterized by a significant upward trend rather than a minor rebound, with further potential for development. The market sentiment has not yet reached its peak, and the current policy environment remains accommodative [33] - The AI wave continues to drive technology growth as the main industry line for this bull market, with recommendations to focus on sectors where AI applications are being implemented [36] - There are also opportunities in value sectors such as undervalued real estate, non-bank financials, traditional consumer sectors benefiting from domestic demand policies, and upstream resource products [40]