宏观经济周报：基本面降息是储备而非标配-20260117

Monetary Policy - The central bank has lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 25 basis points to 1.25%, below the short-term policy rate of 1.4%[1] - The central bank indicated that there is still room for further rate cuts in 2026, but these are likely to be used as a reserve tool rather than a routine operation[1][11] - Current monetary policy focuses on structural rate cuts rather than comprehensive rate cuts, reflecting internal constraints such as low net interest margins for commercial banks[1][11] Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 2.6% year-on-year[3] - Retail sales have increased by 1.3% year-on-year[3] - Exports have risen by 6.6% year-on-year[3] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal spending is expected to increase in Q1 2026, supported by a significant carryover of surplus funds from 2025[2][12] - The combination of structural monetary easing and fiscal policy aims to effectively expand domestic demand and solidify economic recovery[12] Market Trends - Production remains strong, with high demand in sectors like machinery and textiles, while real estate transactions continue to decline[13][14] - Port cargo throughput has increased by 4.82% year-on-year, indicating robust foreign trade momentum[22] Risks - There are uncertainties in overseas markets that could impact economic stability[2][51]