股指周报：政策稳节奏，短期震荡-20260117

Report Title - "Policy Stabilizes Rhythm, Short - term Volatility: Stock Index Weekly Report 2026/01/17" [1] Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - At the beginning of the year, incremental funds entered the market, driving the market to rise rapidly. This week, policies tightened to stabilize the market rhythm. The long - term policy orientation is still a slow - bull market. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips [12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Important News: The CSRC aims to maintain market stability and crack down on illegal activities; China has 200,000 new satellite applications; stock exchanges raise the minimum margin ratio for margin trading; the central bank cuts re - loan and rediscount rates; TSMC plans a 2026 capital expenditure of $52 - 56 billion [12] - Economic and Corporate Earnings: In November 2025, industrial added value increased by 4.8% year - on - year, retail sales rose by 1.3%, and fixed - asset investment fell by 2.6%. December's official manufacturing PMI was 50.1. In December 2025, M1 growth was 3.8%, M2 was 8.5%, and social financing increment was 220.75 billion yuan. December's US dollar - denominated exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year. The US added 50,000 non - farm jobs in December, with a 4.4% unemployment rate [12] - Interest Rates and Credit Environment: This week, 10Y Treasury bond and credit bond interest rates declined, and the credit spread widened. Liquidity became stable at the beginning of the year [12] - Trading Strategy: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term; hold IF long positions for 6 months [14] 2. Spot and Futures Markets - Index Performance: The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.14%, the ChiNext Index rose by 1.00%, etc [17] - Futures Contract Performance: IF, IH contracts generally fell, while IC, IM contracts generally rose [18] 3. Economic and Corporate Earnings - Economic Indicators: In Q3 2025, GDP real growth was 4.8%. In December, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.1. In November 2025, consumption growth was 1.3%, investment growth was - 2.6%. In December, US dollar - denominated exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year [40][43][46] - Corporate Earnings: In the 2025 Q3 report, operating income growth was 1.24% year - on - year, and net profit growth was 3.89% year - on - year [49] 4. Interest Rates and Credit Environment - Interest Rates: 10Y Treasury bond and 3 - year AA - corporate bond interest rates are presented in the report. Liquidity and the relationship between Chinese and US interest rates are also analyzed [53][58] - Credit Environment: In December 2025, M1 growth was 3.8%, M2 was 8.5%. Social financing increment was 220.75 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 64.62 billion yuan [64] 5. Capital Flow - Inflow: This week, about 13.363 billion new equity - focused fund shares were established, and the two - market margin trading balance increased by about 91.295 billion yuan, with the latest balance at 270.1216 billion yuan [72][75] - Outflow: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 164 yuan, and the number of IPO approvals was 1 [78] 6. Valuation - PE (TTM): Shanghai 50 was 11.74, CSI 300 was 14.22, CSI 500 was 37.38, and CSI 1000 was 49.92 - PB (LF): Shanghai 50 was 1.29, CSI 300 was 1.50, CSI 500 was 2.57, and CSI 1000 was 2.66 [83]