蛋白粕周报 2026/01/17：利空频发，粕类价格下跌-20260117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The January USDA report data is slightly bearish as the production estimates of the US and Brazil are slightly revised upwards, and the US export volume is slightly reduced. However, the overall balance sheet is still better than that of the 2024/25 season [10]. - China has increased its procurement of US soybeans, which supports the CBOT US soybean prices but is bearish for domestic meal prices. Additionally, China may significantly reduce the total import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed to about 15%, which is also a major bearish factor for domestic rapeseed prices [10]. - The current price of protein meal has dropped to the previous low. With many bearish news, the short - term volatility will increase [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Industry Information - China and Canada have reached a preliminary trade agreement, and China promises to reduce the total import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed to about 15%. As of the week of January 8, the US exported 2.06 million tons of soybeans, with a cumulative export of 30.64 million tons in the current year; among them, 1.22 million tons were exported to China, and the cumulative export to China in the current year was 8.12 million tons [10]. - In January, the forecast of the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season is 425.67 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.13 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.48 million tons. The stock - to - use ratio is 29.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.39 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.44 percentage points [10]. - In January, the forecast of the US soybean production is 115.99 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.238 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3.05 million tons; the forecast of Brazil's production is 178 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.5 million tons; the forecast of Argentina's production is 48.5 million tons, the same as the December forecast and a year - on - year decrease of 2.6 million tons [10]. - As of the week of January 9, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 1.52 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 730,000 tons; the port inventory of sample soybeans was 8.03 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 210,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons. The operating rate of sample soybean oil mills was 49.5%, a year - on - year decrease of 8.12 percentage points; the soybean meal inventory of sample oil mills was 930,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 135,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 370,000 tons [10]. - Fundamental Assessment - The multi - empty scores of factors such as the US soybean 3 - 5 spread, soybean import crushing profit, rapeseed import cost, and international soybean supply are analyzed. The overall conclusion is that the current protein meal price has dropped to the previous low, and with many bearish news, the short - term volatility will increase [11]. - Trading Strategy Recommendation - Both unilateral and arbitrage trading strategies recommend waiting and seeing [12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Spot Price - The report shows the spot price trends of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong from 2022 to 2026 through charts [19][20]. - Basis of the Main Contract - The report shows the basis trends of the soybean meal May contract and the rapeseed meal May contract from 2022 to 2026 through charts [22][23]. - Inter - month Spread - The report shows the 5 - 9 month spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 through charts [25][26]. - Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread - The report shows the spreads between the soybean meal May contract and the rapeseed meal May contract, and between the soybean meal September contract and the rapeseed meal September contract from 2022 to 2026 through charts [28][29]. 3.3 Supply Side - US Soybean Planting Progress - The report shows the planting progress, emergence rate, defoliation rate, and good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans from 2021 to 2025 through charts [34][35][37]. - Weather Conditions - The report shows the precipitation observation of soybeans in Brazil, the US, and Argentina compared with the same period of previous years through charts. It also provides a summary of the weather conditions in soybean - producing areas as of January 15, including precipitation and temperature anomalies [40][42][44]. - US Soybean Export Progress - The report shows the current market - year cumulative signing volume, next - year market - year cumulative signing volume, current market - year export volume to China, and next - market - year export volume to China of US soybeans through charts [50][53][56]. - The report also shows the monthly import volume of soybeans and rapeseeds in China from 2021 to 2025 through charts [57]. - China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation - The report shows the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 through charts [59][60]. - Brazilian Soybean Export Situation - The report shows the monthly export volume and export volume to China of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2025 through charts [62][63]. - Brazil's Shipment Volume to China - The report shows the weekly and cumulative shipment volumes of Brazilian soybeans to China from 2022 to 2026 through charts [65][66][68]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - Oilseed Inventory Situation - The report shows the port inventory of soybeans and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 through charts [73][74]. - Protein Meal Inventory Situation - The report shows the soybean meal and rapeseed meal inventories of coastal major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 through charts [76][77]. - Protein Meal Crushing Profit - The report shows the crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas from 2022 to 2026 through charts [79][80]. 3.5 Demand Side - Consumption and Transaction of Protein Meal - The report shows the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills and the apparent consumption of soybean meal from 2022 to 2026 through charts [83]. - Breeding Profit - The report shows the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers from 2022 to 2026 through charts [85][86].