Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International geopolitical conflicts have escalated, with Germany and France sending troops to Greenland. Against the backdrop of low profits in various polyolefin production processes, the supply side is facing the expectation of production cuts during the spring maintenance period. According to the production plan, the LL2605 contract has no new production capacity pressure. The rebound in the cost side and the alleviation of supply - side pressure may help the polyolefin prices continue to rebound [15][17][18]. - This week's forecast: The reference trading range for polyethylene (LL2605) is (6300 - 6600); for polypropylene (PP2605), it is (6200 - 6500). The recommended strategy is to go long on LL2605 - LL2609 (a positive spread strategy) [17]. Summaries According to the Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Information - Policy: International geopolitical conflicts have escalated, with Germany and France sending troops to Greenland [15]. - Valuation: For polyethylene, the weekly increase is (spot > futures > cost); for polypropylene, it is also (spot > futures > cost) [15]. - Cost: Last week, WTI crude oil rose by 10.77%, Brent crude oil rose by 10.94%, coal prices rose by 1.15%, methanol rose by 1.33%, ethylene rose by 12.01%, propylene rose by 2.65%, and propane rose by 2.34%. There is still support on the cost side [15]. - Supply: PE capacity utilization is 81.56%, a week - on - week decrease of - 2.19%, a year - on - year decrease of - 4.13%, and a decrease of - 9.64% compared to the five - year average. PP capacity utilization is 76.61%, a week - on - week increase of 3.74%, a year - on - year decrease of - 2.56%, and a decrease of - 10.55% compared to the five - year average. With the approaching spring maintenance and low profits in each process, there is an expectation of significant production cuts [15]. - Imports and Exports: In November, domestic PE imports were 1.0622 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.04% and a year - on - year decrease of - 9.99%. PP imports were 179,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.97% and a year - on - year decrease of - 8.74%. The import profit has rebounded, and the supply of PE from North America has increased, increasing the pressure on the import side. In November, PE exports were 85,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.07% and a year - on - year increase of 38.74%. PP exports were 224,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.54% and a year - on - year increase of 36.59% [15]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate of PE is 41.10%, a week - on - week decrease of - 0.27% and a year - on - year increase of 104.58%. The downstream operating rate of PP is 52.58%, a week - on - week decrease of - 0.04% and a year - on - year increase of 4.12%. It is the seasonal off - season, and there are no bright spots in the downstream operating rate of polyolefins [16]. - Inventory: PE production enterprise inventory is 350,300 tons, a week - on - week de - stocking of - 11.41% and a year - on - year stocking of 7.72%; PE trader inventory is 29,200 tons, a week - on - week de - stocking of - 0.14%. PP production enterprise inventory is 431,000 tons, a week - on - week de - stocking of - 7.85% and a year - on - year stocking of 8.16%; PP trader inventory is 193,900 tons, a week - on - week de - stocking of - 5.28%; PP port inventory is 70,600 tons, a week - on - week de - stocking of - 0.70%. Middle - stream traders have started to stock up [16]. - Strategy Viewpoints - International geopolitical conflicts have escalated. Against the backdrop of low profits in various polyolefin production processes, the supply side is facing the expectation of production cuts during the spring maintenance period. According to the production plan, the LL2605 contract has no new production capacity pressure. The rebound in the cost side and the alleviation of supply - side pressure may help the polyolefin prices continue to rebound. - This week's forecast: The reference trading range for polyethylene (LL2605) is (6300 - 6600); for polypropylene (PP2605), it is (6200 - 6500). - Recommended strategy: Go long on LL2605 - LL2609 (a positive spread strategy) [17]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the term structure, prices, trading volume, open interest, basis, and spreads of LLDPE and PP futures contracts, as well as the price differences between different polyolefin products [31][32][47]. 3. Cost Side - The oil - based cost has increased significantly. The report presents multiple charts related to the prices of WTI crude oil, thermal coal, naphtha, propane, etc., as well as the production capacity utilization rate and gross profit of domestic LPG refineries, and the import and export situation of LPG [72][78][81]. 4. Polyethylene Supply Side - The raw materials for PE production mainly include oil, light hydrocarbons, coal, methanol, and外购乙烯, with oil - based raw materials accounting for 80%. - The report shows charts of PE production capacity utilization, maintenance loss volume, and production volume, as well as those of LLDPE [136][137][142]. 5. Polyethylene Inventory and Imports/Exports - Charts are presented to show the inventory situation of PE production enterprises, traders, and different types of enterprises, as well as the import sources, import volume, and import profit of LLDPE [158][163][166]. 6. Polyethylene Demand Side - The downstream demand for LLDPE is mainly concentrated in packaging films, followed by agriculture films, pipes, etc. - The report provides charts of the downstream operating rate, order days, and raw material and finished product inventory of PE [171][173][182]. 7. Polypropylene Supply Side - The raw materials for PP production mainly include oil, PDH, coal, methanol, and外购丙烯, with外购丙烯 accounting for 53%. - Charts of PP production capacity utilization, maintenance loss volume, and production volume are provided [193][194][199]. 8. Polypropylene Inventory and Imports/Exports - Charts show the inventory situation of PP production enterprises, different types of enterprises, and traders, as well as the import volume, import profit, export country composition, export volume, and export profit of PP [207][208][222]. 9. Polypropylene Demand Side - The downstream demand for PP is mainly concentrated in BOPP, followed by injection molding, drawing, etc. - The report provides charts of the downstream operating rate, raw material and finished product inventory of PP [228][230][235].
聚烯烃周报：原油大幅反弹，聚烯烃检修增加-20260117
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-17 14:42