棉花周报：等待回调择机做多-20260117

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The January USDA report is neutral, and the recent trend of Zhengzhou cotton mainly depends on the domestic market. Affected by the expected reduction in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang and the better - than - expected downstream operation rate in the off - season, the price of Zhengzhou cotton rose significantly in December. However, after the price reached a high level, the short - term volatility increased. It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Industry Information: In January, the predicted global cotton production for the 2025/26 season is 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons compared with the December prediction and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points compared with the December prediction and an increase of 0.62 percentage points compared with the previous year. The predicted US production is 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons compared with the December prediction. The export estimate remains unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. Brazil's production estimate remains at 4.08 million tons; India's production is reduced by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; China's production is increased by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. Brazil exported 450,000 tons of raw cotton in December, an increase of 100,000 tons year - on - year and 50,000 tons month - on - month. Among them, exports to China in December were 146,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons year - on - year and 40,000 tons month - on - month. As of the week of January 8, the US current - year cotton export sales were 80,600 tons, with cumulative export sales of 1.6231 million tons, a decrease of 191,000 tons year - on - year. Among them, exports to China in that week were 13,600 tons, with cumulative exports of 85,300 tons, a decrease of 71,200 tons year - on - year. As of the week of January 16, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.6%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous week and an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.69 million tons, an increase of 380,000 tons year - on - year [9]. - Viewpoints and Strategies: Wait for a callback and then go long [9]. - Fundamental Assessment: The basis is 1323 yuan/ton, showing a strengthening trend; the Zhengzhou cotton 5 - 9 spread is - 155 yuan/ton, with little change; the spinning immediate profit is - 1251 yuan/ton, indicating a decrease in profit; the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread is 485 yuan/ton, with little change; the FC index M 1% is 12582 yuan/ton, and the FC index M sliding - scale duty is 13722 yuan/ton, with a relatively high domestic premium. The overall recommendation is to wait for a callback and then go long [10]. - Trading Strategy Recommendation: For the unilateral strategy, the recommendation is to go long after a callback, driven by the reduction in the new - year planting area and good macro - expectations [11]. 2. Spread Trend Review - Spot Price and Basis: The report provides the trends of the China Cotton Price Index and the basis of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract from 2022 - 2026 [24][25]. - Import Profit: It shows the trends of the 1% tariff and sliding - scale duty internal - external price differences from 2022 - 2026 [26][27]. - Zhengzhou Cotton Monthly Spread: It presents the trends of the Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads from 2022 - 2026 [28][29]. - Production and Sales Area Spread and Spinning Profit: It shows the trends of the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread and the spinning mill's immediate profit from 2022 - 2026 [30][31]. - External Market Spread: It includes the trends of the US - Brazil spread and the FCindexM1% - CotlookA Index 1% tariff from 2022 - 2026 [34][35]. 3. Domestic Market Situation - Domestic Cotton Production: It shows the trends of China's cotton processing and inspection quantity and Xinjiang seed cotton purchase price from 2021 - 2026 [38][39]. - Cotton Import Volume: It presents the trends of China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton import volumes from 2020 - 2025 [40][41]. - US Export Contract Quantity to China: It shows the trends of the US cumulative and weekly export contract quantities to China from 2021 - 2026 [43][44]. - Cotton Yarn Import Volume: It presents the trends of China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton yarn import volumes from 2021 - 2026 [45][46]. - Downstream Operating Rate: It shows the trends of the spinning mill and weaving mill operating rates from 2022 - 2026 [48][49]. - National Sales Progress: It presents the trends of the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City from 2021 - 2026 [51][52]. - Cotton Inventory: It shows the trends of China's weekly commercial cotton inventory and the monthly commercial + industrial inventory from 2021 - 2026 [53][54]. - Spinning Mill Raw Material and Finished Product Inventory: It presents the trends of the spinning mill's cotton and yarn inventories from 2022 - 2026 [55][56]. 4. International Market Situation - US Planting Situation: It shows the trends of the proportion of the US cotton - planting area without drought and the cotton good - quality rate from 2022 - 2026 [59][60]. - US Production Situation: It presents the trends of the US cotton bi - weekly processing volume and cumulative processing volume from 2021 - 2026 [61][62]. - US Production and Planting Area: It shows the trends of the US cotton production estimate and planting area from 2021 - 2026 [63][64]. - US Export Contract Progress: It presents the trends of the US current - year cumulative and weekly export contract quantities from 2021 - 2026 [65][66]. - US Export Shipment Volume: It shows the trends of the US annual cumulative and weekly export shipment volumes from 2021 - 2026 [67][68]. - Brazil Production and Planting Area: It presents the trends of Brazil's cotton planting area and production from 2009 - 2023 [72][73]. - Brazil Export Volume: It shows the trends of Brazil's cotton export volume estimate and monthly export volume from 2021 - 2025 [75][76]. - India Production and Planting Area: It presents the trends of India's cotton planting area, production, consumption, import and export volumes, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2021 - 2026 [79][80][81][82].