锡周报：资金驱动下锡价高位波动加剧-20260117

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic tin price increased by 14.95% week-on-week. The main reason is the low tin inventory and the market's optimism about the long-term tin demand in AI computing power. Speculative funds significantly increased their positions, driving up the futures price, and both futures and spot prices rose simultaneously. Although the supply side is generally stable and the social inventory has significantly rebounded, the capital game under the low inventory expectation will still dominate the tin price trend, and the tin price may fluctuate sharply at a high level in the short term [11][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In November 2025, the import volume of tin concentrates in China increased significantly, and the shortage of raw material supply was alleviated. The import volume of tin ore and its concentrates in November was 15,099 tons, a month-on-month increase of 29.81% and a year-on-year increase of 24.42%. Myanmar, the largest import source, imported 7,190.21 tons that month, a month-on-month increase of 203.79% and a year-on-year increase of 133.38%; the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the second-largest import source, imported 3,225.34 tons that month, a month-on-month increase of 19.45% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.27% [12]. - Supply side: The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained at a high level, with this week's operating rate at 87.81%, basically the same as the previous period. However, restricted by the tight raw material supply, there is limited room for further improvement. Jiangxi is still affected by the insufficient supply of scrap materials, the supply of crude tin is tight, and the refined tin output continues to be at a low level. Overall, against the background that the raw material constraints have not been significantly alleviated, the operation of domestic smelters mainly remains stable at a high level [12]. - Demand side: Downstream consumer electronics are still in the traditional off-season, and terminal orders are weak. However, the demand from emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers provides some support for tin solder. The overall operating rate of tin solder enterprises remains stable. Downstream solder and electronic enterprises continue the low-inventory strategy, and spot purchases are mainly for rigid needs, with limited willingness to actively replenish inventory. As of January 16, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 10,636 tons, an increase of 2,560 tons from last Friday [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - No relevant content other than graphs provided 3. Cost Side - No relevant content other than graphs provided 4. Supply Side - No relevant content other than graphs provided 5. Demand Side - The year-on-year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales has slightly rebounded, and global semiconductor sales have maintained high growth [43]. - No relevant content other than graphs provided 6. Supply - Demand Balance - No relevant content other than graphs provided