油脂周报 2026/01/17：短线观望，等待库存消化-20260117

1. Report Recommendation - The report recommends short - term waiting and observing in the trading strategy, suggesting waiting for inventory digestion [11][13] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental situation of the oil market is weak, with high production and low exports in major palm oil - producing areas leading to high inventories, and domestic inventories of three major oils also at a relatively high level. However, looking forward, there are optimistic expectations such as the downward adjustment of Malaysia's production forecast, Indonesia's confiscation of illegal plantations, and the expected increase in U.S. biodiesel soybean oil consumption in 2026 [11] - Oil prices may be approaching the bottom range [12] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Industry Information: The Trump administration plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March, and Indonesia has cancelled the B50 plan. In January, the estimated consumption of U.S. soybean oil decreased compared to December, while India's vegetable oil imports in December increased. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December increased, production decreased, and exports increased. Malaysia's 2026 palm oil production is expected to be lower than in 2025, and its production in January 2026 decreased. As of January 9, domestic inventories of three major oils decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year [11] - Viewpoint Summary: The current fundamental situation is weak, but there are optimistic long - term expectations, so short - term waiting and observing are recommended [11] - Fundamental Assessment: The basis is neutral to low, the biodiesel spread and inventory are neutral, the import profit is negative, the high production and inventory in major producing countries are negative, and other factors are neutral. Oil prices may be near the bottom [12] - Trading Strategy: Both unilateral and arbitrage trading strategies recommend waiting and observing [13] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - The document presents multiple charts showing the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil contracts, and the monthly spread of various oil contracts from 2022 - 2026 [22][23][26][28][30] 3.3. Supply Side - The document shows charts of the monthly production and export of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil from 2021 - 2025, the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans from 2022 - 2026, and the monthly import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil from 2021 - 2025 [34][36][37][38] 3.4. Profit and Inventory - The document presents charts of the total inventory of three major domestic oils from 2022 - 2026, India's imported vegetable oil inventory from 2021 - 2025, the near - month import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil from 2022 - 2026, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil plants from 2022 - 2026, the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed along the coast and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil from 2022 - 2026, and the inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil from 2021 - 2025 [42][44][46][48][50] 3.5. Cost Side - The document shows charts of the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil from 2022 - 2026, as well as the near - month shipping price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of Chinese rapeseed from 2022 - 2026 [53][56] 3.6. Demand Side - The document presents charts of the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil from 2022 - 2026, and the spread between palm oil and diesel, and soybean oil and heating oil from 2022 - 2026 [61][64]