Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After the rainy season in Guinea, shipments are gradually recovering, and the resumption of production at the AXIS mine is expected to cause the ore price to decline with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the support at the import cost level of Guinea's ore. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting sector is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The National Development and Reform Commission has proposed to prevent blind investment and disorderly construction in alumina and copper smelting, increasing the market's expectation of the implementation of supply contraction policies in the future. However, a sustained rebound still faces three dilemmas: an oversupplied smelting sector, a downward - shifting cost support, and the pressure of expiring warehouse receipts for delivery. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, as the cost - effectiveness of chasing long positions is not high. One can wait for opportunities to arrange short positions in the near - term contracts on rallies. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton, and attention should be focused on supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - Futures Price: As of 3 pm on January 16, the alumina index fell 3% to 2745 yuan/ton this week, and the open interest decreased by 74,000 lots to 703,000 lots. The alumina futures price retreated from its high this week, the spot price was sluggish, and the futures price rebound was still difficult to sustain. The Shandong spot price was reported at 2565 yuan/ton, at a discount of 52 yuan/ton to the 02 contract. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts closed at - 37 yuan/ton [11][24] - Spot Price: This week, the alumina spot prices in various regions continued to decline. The spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 25 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, 35 yuan/ton, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. With the continuous inventory accumulation trend, the spot prices in most regions remained under pressure [11][21] - Inventory: During the week, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 75,000 tons to 5.393 million tons. Among them, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants increased by 28,000 tons, the inventory in alumina plants remained unchanged, the in - transit inventory increased by 55,000 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 8,000 tons. The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 17,200 tons to 176,800 tons during the week; the inventory in the delivery warehouse was 217,100 tons, an increase of 21,100 tons from last week [11][70][72] 2. Spot and Futures Prices - Spot Price: The alumina spot prices in various regions continued to decline, with different decreases in different regions due to the continuous inventory accumulation [21] - Futures Price and Basis: The alumina futures price retreated from its high, and was difficult to sustain a rebound. The Shandong spot price had a discount to the 02 contract, and the spread between the first - and third - month contracts was - 37 yuan/ton as of January 16 [11][24] - Bauxite Price: The bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged this week. The CIF price of Guinea's bauxite decreased by 1.5 dollars/ton to 63 dollars/ton, and that of Australia's bauxite decreased by 2 dollars/ton to 60 dollars/ton. After the rainy season in Guinea, the ore shipments increased, and the resumption of the AXIS mine exacerbated the bauxite oversupply pattern. With the high port inventory, the ore price is expected to decline with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the support at 60 dollars/ton for the CIF price of Guinea's bauxite [29] 3. Supply Side - Bauxite Production: In December 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.94 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% and a month - on - month increase of 5.16%. The total production in the first twelve months of 2025 was 60.15 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.14% [33] - Bauxite Import: In November 2025, China imported 15.11 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 22.34% and a month - on - month increase of 9.76%. The total import in the first eleven months of 2025 was 186.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.44%. Among them, the import of Guinea's bauxite in November 2025 was 10.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.84% and a month - on - month increase of 19%, while the import of Australia's bauxite was 3.41 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.73% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.78% [35][37][39] - Bauxite Inventory: In December 2025, China's bauxite inventory increased by 2.97 million tons to 56.26 million tons, remaining at a high level in the past five years. The inventory in Shanxi decreased by 41,000 tons, and that in Henan increased by 22,000 tons, with the main increase coming from Shandong [42] - Alumina Production: In December 2025, China's alumina production was 8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.75% and a month - on - month increase of 2.07%. The total production in the first twelve months of 2025 was 90.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.06%. As of January 16, 2026, the weekly alumina production was 1.853 million tons, a slight increase of 2,000 tons from last week [44][45] - Alumina Factory Profit: The alumina spot price declined, putting pressure on the profit of alumina factories. According to the alumina spot price on January 16, the production profit in Guangxi could reach 120 yuan/ton. The profits in Shandong using Australian and Guinea's ores were 90 yuan/ton and 25 yuan/ton respectively, approaching the loss situation. Factories in inland areas using overseas ores in Shanxi and Henan had losses of 130 yuan/ton and 20 yuan/ton respectively [48] - Alumina Import and Export: In November 2025, the net alumina import was 64,400 tons. As of January 16, the FOB price of Australian alumina decreased by 3 dollars/ton to 305 dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 83 yuan/ton, with the import window closed [50][52] - Overseas Alumina Production: In December 2025, the overseas alumina production was 5.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.66% and a month - on - month increase of 4.23%. The total production in the first twelve months of 2025 was 62.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.61% [54] 4. Demand Side - Electrolytic Aluminum Production: In December 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.05% and a month - on - month increase of 4.02%. The total production in the first twelve months of 2025 was 44.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.71% [59] - Electrolytic Aluminum Operation and Start - up: In December 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.69 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 50,000 tons. In November, the start - up rate of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 0.46% to 96.76% [62] 5. Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides an alumina balance sheet for 2026, showing the supply - demand differences, total demand, total supply, net exports, export and import volumes, alumina consumption by electrolytic aluminum, electrolytic aluminum production, operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum, alumina production, and operating capacity of alumina in different months and the cumulative data [65] 6. Inventory - Social Inventory: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 75,000 tons to 5.393 million tons during the week, with different changes in different types of inventory [70] - Futures Inventory: The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 17,200 tons to 176,800 tons during the week, and the inventory in the delivery warehouse was 217,100 tons, an increase of 21,100 tons from last week [72]
氧化铝周报 2026/01/17：成本支撑持续下移，基本面拐点仍需等待-20260117
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-17 14:52