原油周报：逢低做多-20260117

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy on Dips" for crude oil [17] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The heavy oil crack spread can be taken as a profit, while crude oil can be bought on dips within the shale oil break - even cost range [15][17] - In 2025, the oil price center will move down, with a bottom margin, and it's difficult to predict a trend. The extremely pessimistic bottom range is expected to be between $45/barrel and $55/barrel. It is recommended to short on rallies [22] - In 2026, the oil price center will reach the bottom, and the price is expected to rise steadily during the peak season, but the increase is still limited. The center is expected to be between $60/barrel and $65/barrel. It is recommended to buy on dips and focus on crack spread opportunities [22] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment & Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: Crude oil rebounded this week. The geopolitical situation in Venezuela did not expand, but there were potential geopolitical expectations between Iran and Israel, causing oil prices to fluctuate with the geopolitical situation [15] - Supply - Demand Changes: US commercial crude oil inventories increased, while in the Middle East, production in Venezuela and Iran declined, leading to a marginal decrease. The CPC pipeline export is expected to resume, and overall supply in January is expected to decline slightly [15] - Macro - Political Situation: In December, the US CPI was 2.7% year - on - year and + 0.3% month - on - month, and the core CPI was 2.6% year - on - year, slightly lower than the expected 2.7%. Politically, President Trump imposed sanctions on countries trading with Iran, and the geopolitical friction between the US and Iran intensified, but the probability of military strikes is considered low [15] - Viewpoint Summary: The heavy oil crack spread can be taken as a profit, and crude oil can be bought on dips within the shale oil break - even cost range [15][17] 2. Macro & Geopolitical - Macro Short - Term High - Frequency Indicators: Include the US ISM manufacturing PMI, Citigroup G10 economic surprise index, US 10 - year inflation expectation, and US long - short - term spread, which are correlated with WTI oil prices [46] - Macro Medium - Term Forecast Indicators: Such as the eurozone investment confidence index, eurozone PMI, US investment confidence index, and US PMI, which are used to predict the macro - economic situation [49] - Geopolitical Indicators: The Middle East geopolitical risk index and the high - frequency export statistics of sensitive oil countries (Iran, Libya, Venezuela, and Russia) are related to WTI oil prices [56] 3. Oil Product Spreads - Forward Curve: Analyzes the WTI crude oil forward curve, including the M1/M4 month - spread and the M1 price, as well as the forward curves of other crude oils such as Brent, Dubai, and INE [60] - Inter - Regional Spreads: Compares the spreads between Brent/WTI, Brent/Dubai, INE/WTI, and MRBN/WTI [63] - Product Spreads: Studies the spreads between different oil products such as LGO diesel, gasoline, and diesel, including the RB/HO and LGO/RB spreads [70] - Crack Spreads: Analyzes the crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, Europe, and the US [74][77][80] 4. Crude Oil Supply - OPEC & OPEC+ Supply: OPEC and OPEC+ have implemented a series of production - cut and production - increase measures. The production and export of OPEC 12 countries and OPEC+ main member countries are analyzed, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, etc. [86][91][112] - US Supply: The US has implemented a series of policies, such as reducing SPR funds, imposing sanctions on Iran and Russia, and planning to purchase SPR. The number of oil wells, rigs, production, and export in the US are also analyzed [117][118] - Other Supply: The production of other countries such as Canada, Norway, and Brazil is analyzed [126] 5. Crude Oil Demand - US Demand: Includes the US crude oil input, refinery capacity utilization, direct import and export demand, and the demand for refined oil products such as gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and aviation kerosene [132][134][137] - Chinese Demand: Analyzes China's crude oil input, import, refinery profit, and the production and demand of refined oil products such as gasoline and diesel. Micro - demand indicators such as new - energy vehicle penetration and population migration are also considered [154][159][167] - European Demand: Focuses on the refinery start - up rate, crude oil input, and the production of refined oil products in 16 European countries [173][178] - Indian Demand: Analyzes India's crude oil input, refinery start - up rate, import, and demand [183] - Other Demand: Considers the average daily speed of oil tankers and the oil - transportation quality model [187][190] 6. Crude Oil Inventory - US Inventory: Includes US commercial crude oil inventory, Cushing inventory, and the inventory of refined oil products such as gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and aviation kerosene [197][199][201] - Chinese Inventory: Analyzes China's crude oil port inventory, gasoline and diesel inventory, and the inventory of refined oil products [206][209][212] - European Inventory: Focuses on the ARA inventory and the inventory of 16 European countries, including gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil products [217][222][225] - Singapore Inventory: Analyzes Singapore's gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil product inventory [229] - Fujairah Inventory: Focuses on the gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil product inventory in Fujairah [234] - Marine Inventory: Analyzes the floating storage of gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, kerosene, heavy oil, light oil, and crude oil at sea [239][245][249] 7. Meteorological Disasters - Crude Oil Supply Area Meteorological Disasters: Include the US Gulf of Mexico storm model, the Middle East strait storm model, the Canadian wildfire probability model, and the US Gulf of Mexico rainstorm and thunderstorm [255][261] 8. Alternative Data - Crude Oil Alternative Data: Such as the in - transit supply of crude oil by sea, the oil - transportation demand model, the shipping freight in the Arabian Sea, and the media - voted probability of the Hormuz Strait blockade, which are related to WTI oil prices [267]