锌周报：宏观情绪退潮，铜锌比值低位-20260117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc ore port inventory decreased slightly, and the import TC of zinc concentrate declined marginally. However, the rise in zinc price slightly increased zinc smelting profit, but the industrial situation showed no significant improvement. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly, and the Shanghai-London ratio stagnated and then declined. Since December 24, 2025, the domestic zinc-copper ratio reached a new low since the listing of Shanghai zinc in 2007, and since January 9, 2026, the domestic zinc-aluminum ratio reached a new low since 2013. Zinc price still has significant room to catch up compared to copper and aluminum. Currently, zinc price is still in the process of following the sector to make up for its macro attributes. On Friday, along with the decline of silver, copper, and aluminum, zinc price gave back some of its gains. However, in the double-loose cycle, the non-ferrous sector is still regarded as bullish. Subsequently, it is necessary to observe the trends of leading varieties within the sector and the Shanghai-London ratio [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment - Price Review: On Friday, the Shanghai Zinc Index closed down 1.38% at 24,746 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 253,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Zinc 3S fell 41 to 3,264 US dollars/ton compared to the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 231,400 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 24,800 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of 30 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of - 30 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of - 5 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai-Guangdong price difference of 35 yuan/ton [11]. - Domestic Structure: The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 33,600 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 106,500 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons compared to January 12. The basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was 30 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 75 yuan/ton. Overseas Structure: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 8,600 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 27.62 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 26.99 US dollars/ton. Cross - Market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai-London ratio was 1.092, and the profit and loss of zinc ingot imports was - 2,197.64 yuan/ton [11]. - Industrial Data: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was 33 US dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 249,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 617,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 53.48%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 380,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 49.52%, with a raw material inventory of 10,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 12,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 55.88%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons. According to the LME announcement, starting from April 14, 2026, it will no longer accept further deliveries of the special high - purity zinc brands YP - SHG produced by YoungPoong Company, KZ - SHG99.995 produced by Korea Zinc Co., Ltd., and the lead brand KZ - LEAD [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis Although a large number of macro - related charts are presented, no specific analysis text is provided. 3.3 Supply Analysis - Zinc Ore Production and Import: In December 2025, the zinc ore production was 287,800 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 5.85% and a month - on - month change of - 7.58%. From January to December, the total zinc ore production was 3,669,800 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of - 0.86%. In November 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 519,000 dry tons, with a year - on - year change of 14.1% and a month - on - month change of 52.3%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 4,859,100 dry tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 34.2% [25]. - Total Supply and Inventory of Zinc Ore: In November 2025, the total domestic supply of zinc ore was 545,000 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 8.8% and a month - on - month change of 12.6%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic supply of zinc ore was 5,568,600 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1%. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 249,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 617,000 physical tons [27]. - Zinc Ingot Production and Import: In December 2025, the zinc ingot production was 552,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of 6.9% and a month - on - month change of - 7.2%. From January to December, the total zinc ingot production was 6,834,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.4%. In November 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was - 23,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of - 160.1% and a month - on - month change of - 275.2%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 257,800 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of - 41.5% [33]. - Total Supply of Zinc Ingot: In November 2025, the total domestic supply of zinc ingots was 572,200 tons, with a year - on - year change of 4.4% and a month - on - month change of - 9.2%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic supply of zinc ingots was 6,539,300 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.9% [35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - Initial - Stage Operating Rate and Inventory: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 53.48%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 380,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 49.52%, with a raw material inventory of 10,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 12,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 55.88%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [39]. - Apparent Demand for Zinc Ingot: In November 2025, the apparent demand for domestic zinc ingots was 603,800 tons, with a year - on - year change of 8.9% and a month - on - month change of - 1.0%. From January to November, the cumulative apparent demand for domestic zinc ingots was 6,407,300 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.8% [41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - Domestic Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Balance: In November 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of 31,600 tons. From January to November, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand gap was a surplus of 131,900 tons [52]. - Overseas Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Balance: In October 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand gap was a shortage of 28,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand gap was a surplus of 78,000 tons [55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 33,600 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 106,500 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons compared to January 12. The basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was 30 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 75 yuan/ton [60]. - Overseas Structure: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 8,600 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 27.62 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 26.99 US dollars/ton [63]. - Cross - Market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai-London ratio was 1.092, and the profit and loss of zinc ingot imports was - 2,197.64 yuan/ton [66]. - Position Analysis: The net long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai zinc decreased, the net long position of investment funds in London zinc declined, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From the perspective of positions, it is short - term bearish [69].