玻璃周报：看多情绪消退，宽松平衡格局未改-20260117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints Glass Market - Last week, the sentiment in the glass market shifted from strong to weak, with the futures market experiencing a volatile correction. The supply - side daily melting volume remained at a low level, and there were no obvious restart plans in the short term. On the demand - side, downstream processors were gradually entering the holiday mode. Although there was some rush - work in certain areas, the overall restocking intention was weak, and the speculative demand from traders was also inactive. The consumption side remained sluggish. In terms of inventory, despite the low production driving the continuous reduction of factory inventory, the current inventory level was still significantly higher than the same period in previous years. Downstream players generally maintained a low - inventory operation strategy, and procurement was mostly for immediate needs. In the spot market, some manufacturers tried to raise prices at the beginning of the week, but due to the decline in futures prices and insufficient actual order support, the price increase was not fully implemented. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of the glass market remained in a loose balance, with no obvious marginal drivers. It was expected that the futures market would continue to fluctuate widely in the short term, with the main contract reference range between 1015 - 1200 yuan/ton [13][14]. Soda Ash Market - Last week, the soda ash market continued to show a weak and volatile pattern. Fundamentally, the industry's operating rate on the supply - side remained at a high level, and the overall market supply was abundant. The demand - side remained weak, with downstream enterprises being cautious in procurement, mostly focusing on low - price immediate needs. The market trading atmosphere was generally dull. As a result, new orders from manufacturers were mediocre, and although the enterprise inventory had a slight reduction, the overall pressure still existed. Currently, the supply - demand game in the soda ash market continued, and there were no obvious driving factors for the market. It was expected that the market would continue to undergo weak consolidation in the short term, with the main contract reference price range between 1123 - 1310 yuan/ton [62][63]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Report 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: As of January 17, 2026, the spot market price of float glass was 1020 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The closing price of the main glass futures contract was 1103 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton from the previous week. The basis was - 83 yuan/ton, an increase of 41 yuan/ton from the previous week [13][19]. - Cost and Profit: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 164.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.00 yuan/ton from the previous week. The low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3850 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from the previous week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was - 69.01 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.82 yuan/ton from the previous week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was 3.93 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.71 yuan/ton from the previous week [13][29][32]. - Supply: As of January 17, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.23 tons, a decrease of 0.693 tons from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 212, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 71.48% [13][37]. - Demand: According to WIND data, from January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 78701.74 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%. In November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 6719.74 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93%. According to CAAM data, from January to November, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 3123.10/3112.70 million vehicles [13][43][46]. - Inventory: As of January 17, 2026, the national float glass factory inventory was 5301.3 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 250.50 million heavy boxes from the previous week. The factory inventory in the Shahe area was 190.32 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 71.04 million heavy boxes from the previous week. It was expected that the inventory would continue to decrease this week, with an estimated value of 5050.8 million heavy boxes [13][51]. 02. Futures and Spot Market - Glass Basis: As of January 17, 2026, the spot market price of float glass was 1020 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The closing price of the main glass futures contract was 1103 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton from the previous week. The basis was - 83 yuan/ton, an increase of 41 yuan/ton from the previous week [19]. - Glass Inter - month Spread: As of January 17, 2026, the 01 - 05 spread of glass was - 159 yuan/ton (- 39), the 05 - 09 spread was - 107 yuan/ton (- 17), the 09 - 01 spread was 266 yuan/ton (+ 56), and the open interest reached 159.10 million lots [22]. 03. Profit and Cost - Float Glass Profit and Cost: As of January 17, 2026, the weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 164.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.00 yuan/ton from the previous week. The low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3850 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from the previous week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was - 69.01 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.82 yuan/ton from the previous week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was 3.93 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.71 yuan/ton from the previous week [29][32]. 04. Supply and Demand - Glass Production and Operating Rate: As of January 17, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.23 tons, a decrease of 0.693 tons from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 212, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 71.48% [37]. - Glass Demand: As of January 17, 2026, the downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 9.3 days, an increase of 0.70 days from the previous week. The operating rate of Low - e glass was 44.10%, unchanged from the previous week. According to WIND data, from January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 78701.74 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%. In November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 6719.74 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93%. According to CAAM data, from January to November, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 3123.10/3112.70 million vehicles [40][43][46]. 05. Inventory - As of January 17, 2026, the national float glass factory inventory was 5301.3 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 250.50 million heavy boxes from the previous week. The factory inventory in the Shahe area was 190.32 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 71.04 million heavy boxes from the previous week. It was expected that the inventory would continue to decrease this week, with an estimated value of 5050.8 million heavy boxes [51]. Soda Ash Report 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: As of January 17, 2026, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1142 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the main soda ash futures contract was 1192 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton from the previous week. The basis was - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [62][68]. - Cost and Profit: As of January 17, 2026, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was - 76 yuan/ton (+ 9), the 05 - 09 spread was - 65 yuan/ton (+ 3), the 09 - 01 spread was 141 yuan/ton (- 12), and the open interest reached 159.10 million lots. The weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 183.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.45 yuan/ton from the previous week. The weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 112 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous week [62][71][79]. - Supply: As of January 17, 2026, the weekly output of soda ash was 77.53 tons, an increase of 2.17 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 86.82%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41.38 tons, an increase of 0.93 tons from the previous week. The output of light soda ash was 36.15 tons, an increase of 1.24 tons from the previous week [62][90][93]. - Demand: As of January 17, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.23 tons, a decrease of 0.693 tons from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 212, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 71.48%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in November reached 289 tons [62][96]. - Inventory: As of January 17, 2026, the soda ash factory inventory was 157.5 tons, an increase of 0.23 tons from the previous week. The inventory available days were 13.06 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week. The heavy soda ash factory inventory was 73.8 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons from the previous week. The light soda ash factory inventory was 83.7 tons, an increase of 0.05 tons from the previous week. It was expected that the inventory would slightly decrease this week, with an estimated value of 157.27 tons [62][101][104]. 02. Futures and Spot Market - Soda Ash Basis: As of January 17, 2026, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1142 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the main soda ash futures contract was 1192 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton from the previous week. The basis was - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [68]. - Soda Ash Inter - month Spread: As of January 17, 2026, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was - 76 yuan/ton (+ 9), the 05 - 09 spread was - 65 yuan/ton (+ 3), the 09 - 01 spread was 141 yuan/ton (- 12), and the open interest reached 159.10 million lots [71]. 03. Profit and Cost - Soda Ash Profit: As of January 17, 2026, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 183.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.45 yuan/ton from the previous week. The weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 112 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous week [79]. - Raw Material Cost: As of January 17, 2026, the price of thermal coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 704 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton from the previous week. The low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3850 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2325 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [82][85]. 04. Supply and Demand - Soda Ash Production: As of January 17, 2026, the weekly output of soda ash was 77.53 tons, an increase of 2.17 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 86.82%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41.38 tons, an increase of 0.93 tons from the previous week. The output of light soda ash was 36.15 tons, an increase of 1.24 tons from the previous week [90][93]. - Soda Ash Demand: As of January 17, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.23 tons, a decrease of 0.693 tons from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 212, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 71.48%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in November reached 289 tons [96]. 05. Inventory - As of January 17, 2026, the soda ash factory inventory was 157.5 tons, an increase of 0.23 tons from the previous week. The inventory available days were 13.06 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week. The heavy soda ash factory inventory was 73.8 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons from the previous week. The light soda ash factory inventory was 83.7 tons, an increase of 0.05 tons from the previous week. It was expected that the inventory would slightly decrease this week, with an estimated value of 157.27 tons [101][104].