Industry Investment Rating - Short - term outlook: Hold. The downside space of domestic sugar prices is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [1] Core View - The raw sugar price has fallen below the support of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After April this year, there is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugar cane for sugar production in the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish sugar - crushing in February and the bearish impact of increased production is basically realized, international sugar prices may rebound. Currently, the supply of imported sugar sources in China is gradually decreasing. As sugar prices fall to a low level, the short - term downside space is limited [9] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Industry News: In the first half of December, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.8%; the cumulative sugar production was 40.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. The sugar cane crushing volume was 5.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.8%; the cumulative crushing volume was 598 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. As of January 15, 2026, the sugar production in India reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase from 13.044 million tons in the same period last year. The number of sugar mills still in operation increased from 500 to 518. In December, Brazil exported 2.913 million tons of sugar, an increase of 80,000 tons compared to the same period last year and a decrease of 390,000 tons compared to the previous month. In December, Brazil exported 385,300 tons of sugar to China, an increase of 330,000 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 56,000 tons compared to the previous month. As of the week of January 15, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 48, up from 44 the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.6629 million tons, up from 1.5823 million tons the previous week [9] - View and Strategy: Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish sugar - crushing in February. After the bearish impact of increased production is basically realized, international sugar prices may rebound. The current supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing. As sugar prices fall to a low level, the short - term downside space is limited, so it is recommended to wait and see [9] - Fundamental Assessment: The basis is 92 yuan/ton, the Zhengzhou sugar 5 - 9 spread is - 9 yuan/ton, the production - sales area spread is - 200 yuan/ton, the raw - white sugar spread is 98 US dollars/ton, the sugar - alcohol spread is - 1.79 cents/pound. The cost of the March contract within the quota is 4124 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 5123 yuan/ton. The short - term recommendation is to wait and see [10] - Trading Strategy Recommendation: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [11] 2. Spread Trend Review - Spot Price and Basis: The report presents the price trend of first - grade white sugar in Nanning, Guangxi and the basis between the Nanning spot and the main Zhengzhou sugar contract through charts [17][18] - Spot - to - Spot Spreads: It shows the processing sugar basis, production - sales area spreads, Zhengzhou sugar 1 - 5 spreads, and Zhengzhou sugar 5 - 9 spreads through charts [20][21][23] - Domestic - Foreign Spreads: The report shows the import profit of out - of - quota spot and out - of - quota futures, as well as the spreads of raw sugar 10 - 3, raw sugar 3 - 5, London white sugar 3 - 5, and London white sugar 5 - 8 through charts [24][25][27] - Raw - White Sugar Spread: It presents the raw - white sugar spreads of 5 - 5 and 3 - 3 through charts [30][31] - Raw Sugar Spot Premium or Discount: It shows the premium or discount of Brazilian and Thai raw sugar through charts [32][33] - Sugar - Alcohol Ratio: The sugar - alcohol ratio is in a volatile state, and relevant charts are provided [35][36] 3. Domestic Market Situation - National Production: The report shows the monthly and cumulative sugar production in China through charts [39][40] - Sugar Imports: It presents the monthly and annual cumulative sugar imports, as well as the monthly and annual cumulative imports of syrup and premixed powder in China through charts [42][43][45] - National Sales: The monthly sugar sales volume and cumulative production - sales progress in China are shown through charts [47][48] - National Industrial Inventory: The monthly industrial inventory in China and the inventory in the three - party warehouses in Guangxi are shown through charts [50][51] 4. International Market Situation - Production in Central - Southern Brazil: The report shows the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production, the cumulative sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio, and the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil through charts [55][56][58] - Production in India: The bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in India are shown through charts [60][61] - Production in Thailand: The bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in Thailand are shown through charts [63][64] - Brazilian Shipment Volume: The sugar inventory in the central - southern region of Brazil and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded at Brazilian ports are shown through charts [66][67]
白糖周报 2026/01/17：下行空间或有限，短线观望-20260117
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-17 14:54