钢材周报：需求边际改善，延续底部震荡-20260117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The commodity market sentiment was positive this week, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate within the bottom range. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils improved marginally, but the inventory remained relatively high with a slow destocking pace. The apparent demand for rebar increased significantly, with production remaining neutral and inventory fluctuating slightly. Overall, the supply-demand structure improved slightly compared to the previous period. - With the marginal recovery of demand and the support from the cost side, the downside support for the black series is gradually emerging. Although it still operates within the bottom oscillation range in the short term, the further downward space is relatively limited. The strategy maintains a slightly bullish stance while observing. - Attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand recovery and the progress of hot-rolled coil destocking. Also, be vigilant about the short-term disturbance of market rumors to sentiment. If the "dual carbon" - related policies are strengthened or the cost side strengthens again, it may drive steel prices upward [11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: This week, the rebar production was 1.903 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from last week, with a year - on - year increase of 1.57%. Long - process production was 1.5634 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.37%. Short - process production was 0.3396 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.66% and a year - on - year increase of 38.50%. The long - process production continued to decline slightly, while the short - process production remained at a relatively high level. The steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%. The blast furnace profit of rebar in East China was about 65 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level, and the valley - electricity profit was 69 yuan/ton, with the electric - furnace profit narrowing compared to the previous period. The rebar basis was 137 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil basis was - 5 yuan/ton, with neutral valuations [11]. - Demand: The apparent consumption of rebar this week was 1.9034 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.80% and a year - on - year increase of 8.80%. The demand was neutral but still in the seasonally weak range, with a slow recovery pace at the terminal. The apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils was 3.1416 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.89% and a year - on - year increase of 0.16%, with relatively neutral comprehensive demand [11]. - Inventory: The rebar inventory this week was 4.3807 million tons, an increase of 120,800 tons compared to the same period last year, remaining at a relatively low level. The hot - rolled coil inventory was 3.6233 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 460,000 tons (+14.50%). Affected by the late Spring Festival, the destocking pace of hot - rolled coils this year was slower than in previous years, and the current inventory pressure remained relatively high [11]. - Strategy: Maintain a slightly bullish stance while observing. Focus on the sustainability of demand recovery and the progress of hot - rolled coil destocking, and be vigilant about market rumors [11][12][13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are presented, including the price and trading volume of rebar in different regions (North, East, South), the basis and price differences of rebar futures contracts (January, May, October), the price and basis of hot - rolled coils in different regions and futures contracts, the price differences between hot - rolled and rebar futures, the price differences between China and other regions (Japan, Southeast Asia, Europe) for hot - rolled coils, and the prices and price differences of cold - rolled coils, color - coated coils, and galvanized sheets [24][26][29]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit: Charts show the rebar and hot - rolled coil disk profits, the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils from Steel Union, the blast furnace and electric - furnace profits of rebar, and the spot profits of rebar blast furnaces and electric furnaces [78][80][82]. - Inventory: Charts display the total inventory, factory inventory, and social inventory of rebar, the inventory of steel billets in Tangshan and 55 rolling enterprises, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils in China, including large - sample, social, and factory inventories [90][92][101]. 3.4 Cost Side - Charts show the ratio of rebar to iron ore and coke futures, daily average pig iron and crude steel production, the price of square billets, the price difference between rebar and billets, the price of heavy scrap, crushed materials, and scrap steel, and the cumulative consumption of scrap steel and its consumption in electric - furnace smelting [107][110][113]. 3.5 Supply Side - Charts present the production, cumulative year - on - year production, and capacity utilization rate of rebar, as well as the actual production, cumulative year - on - year production, and capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils [127][130][132]. 3.6 Demand and Import - Export - Demand: Charts show the apparent consumption and cumulative year - on - year consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as the production and export volume of household appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners [139][142][147]. - Import - Export: Charts display the monthly import and export volume of steel, rebar, and plates [154][156][159].