KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2026-01-17 15:15Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The supply-demand mismatch leads to a situation where prices are strong but volumes are weak, with seasonal support and tight supply of large pigs supporting the price center for pigs. The average price of live pigs in China as of January 16, 2026, is 12.77 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.19 CNY/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 3.01% [3][13] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost demand for pet products, with sales likely to improve marginally in January due to the delayed timing of the New Year shopping festival [4][25] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The seasonal support combined with tight supply of large pigs is expected to stabilize pig prices. The average price of white strips has recovered to 16.65 CNY/kg, and the price difference for white strips has increased to approximately 3.96 CNY/kg, indicating improved seasonal consumption support [3][13][14] Market Performance (January 12-16) - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 2.82 percentage points, with the agricultural index declining by 3.27% while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45%. The animal health sector led the gains [6][26] Key News (January 12-16) - U.S. corn futures experienced the largest decline since 2024 due to an unexpected increase in U.S. production forecasts by the USDA. Additionally, the introduction of grandparent white feather chickens has been completely halted due to avian influenza, with no timeline for resumption [5][32] Price Tracking (January 12-16) - The average price of live pigs was 12.78 CNY/kg, up 1.19% from the previous week. The average price of piglets was 21.99 CNY/kg, up 7.85% week-on-week. The average price of white strips was 17.00 CNY/kg, also up 0.15% [7][34] Major Meat Import Volumes - In November 2025, pork imports totaled 60,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 34.3%. Chicken imports were 6,400 tons, down 83.7% year-on-year [53][55] Feed Production - In November 2025, the total industrial feed production in China was 28.73 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% [56]