国信期货甲醇周报：需求预期缩减，甲醇偏弱震荡-20260118

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled 'Demand Expectation Reduction, Methanol in Weak Oscillation - Guoxin Futures Methanol Weekly Report' and dated January 18, 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Review 2.1 Methanol Futures and Spot Prices and Spreads - The main methanol contract MA2605 closed at 2,239 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 0.27%, an increase of 11,000 lots in positions, and a total position of 820,000 lots [6] 2.2 Methanol Spot Prices in Different Regions and Spreads between Production and Sales Areas - The coastal methanol market slightly declined this week, and the inland market also had a narrow decline. The weekly average price in Taicang was 2,246 yuan/ton, a 0.11% decrease from the previous week, and the weekly average price in Inner Mongolia was 1,848 yuan/ton, a 0.35% decrease [9] 2.3 Methanol Foreign Prices and Spreads between Domestic and Foreign Markets - For foreign markets, the reference negotiation price for non-Iranian cargoes arriving in the far - month is 254 - 269 US dollars/ton, and the negotiation price for Iranian cargoes arriving in the near - far - month is +0.5 - 2.4%. The European methanol market was stable this week, with a reference price of 260 - 265 euros/ton and a few transactions at 260 euros/ton [12] Group 3: Methanol Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Methanol Operating Rate - As of January 15, the overall operating rate of domestic methanol plants was 77.91%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points from the previous week and 1.69 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating rate in the northwest region was 89.45%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from the previous week and 1.75 percentage points higher than the same period last year [16] 3.2 Methanol Import and Export Volumes - No specific data provided in the given text 3.3 Methanol Port Inventories - The coastal methanol inventory this week was 1.432 million tons, a decrease of 30,500 tons from the previous week, a decline of 2.09%. The available methanol supply in coastal areas was 688,000 tons. The unloading speed of imported ships was slow, leading to a narrow decline in coastal inventory. It is expected that the arrival volume of imported ships in China in mid - to - late January will be 740,000 tons [23] 3.4 Crude Oil and Natural Gas - The domestic thermal coal market weakened from strong this week, and the market sentiment cooled. The production of coal mines in producing areas was stable, and the downstream procurement rhythm was first fast and then slow, putting pressure on pit - mouth prices [27] 3.7 Methanol Downstream - Traditional Downstream - The weighted operating rate of the overall methanol downstream was 74.2%, a decrease of 4.4% from the previous week, and the weighted operating rate of the traditional downstream was 55.5%, an increase of 0.1% from the previous week [29] 3.8 Methanol Downstream - MTO - The average operating rate of methanol - to - olefin plants this week was 80.75%, a decrease of 4.67 percentage points from the previous week. The average operating rate of MTO plants using externally purchased methanol was 70.03%, a decrease of 8.85 percentage points from the previous week [39] Group 4: Market Outlook - On the domestic supply side, the operating rate of methanol plants slightly decreased due to the maintenance of Henan Zhongxin and Shanxi Lubao. The coastal methanol inventory decreased slightly this week. In terms of demand, more olefin plants carried out maintenance due to profit issues, and the operating rate of externally purchased MTO plants decreased by 8.85 percentage points to 70%. The overall market was in a weak consolidation state due to uncertain foreign supply, sellers' reluctance to sell at low prices, downstream resistance to high prices, and the expectation of weakening demand [41]