Soochow Securities·2026-01-18 04:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for CITIC Securities is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the impact of Yuexiu Capital's plan to reduce its stake in CITIC Securities by 1% is relatively limited. The actual reduction is expected to be minor, and the company maintains a strong market position with robust profitability [1][9] - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, expecting CITIC Securities' net profit attributable to shareholders to reach 30.1 billion, 31.8 billion, and 33.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 38%, 6%, and 5% [1][9] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for CITIC Securities are as follows: - 2023: 60,068 million yuan - 2024: 63,789 million yuan - 2025: 74,811 million yuan - 2026: 77,788 million yuan - 2027: 80,400 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected at -7.74%, 6.20%, 17.28%, 3.98%, and 3.36% for the respective years [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 19,721 million yuan - 2024: 21,704 million yuan - 2025: 30,055 million yuan - 2026: 31,764 million yuan - 2027: 33,442 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at -7.49%, 10.06%, 38.48%, 5.69%, and 5.28% for the respective years [1] Valuation Metrics - The report provides the following earnings per share (EPS) estimates: - 2023: 1.30 yuan - 2024: 1.41 yuan - 2025: 2.03 yuan - 2026: 2.14 yuan - 2027: 2.26 yuan - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected as follows: - 2023: 21.60 - 2024: 19.91 - 2025: 13.85 - 2026: 13.10 - 2027: 12.44 [1]