KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2026-01-18 04:41Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights strong performance from TSMC and Google, emphasizing the importance of the silicon photonics chain and Google chain [14][17] - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2026 is significantly increased, indicating robust growth signals in AI [5][15] - Apple's partnership with Google to utilize the Gemini model for AI applications, particularly in Siri, is noted as a positive development for Google's AI capabilities [17] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue reached $33.7 billion, slightly above expectations, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.9% [5][14] - TSMC's 2025 annual revenue was $122 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.9%, outperforming the foundry industry growth of 16% [5][14] - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in silicon photonics and liquid cooling due to the AI-driven demand [16] 2. Communication Data Tracking - As of November 2025, China's 5G base stations totaled 4.83 million, with a net increase of 579,000 from the end of 2024 [28] - The number of 5G mobile phone users reached 1.193 billion, a year-on-year growth of 19.06% [28] - 5G mobile phone shipments in November 2025 were 27.614 million units, accounting for 91.6% of total shipments, with a year-on-year growth of 1.08% [28] 3. Operator Performance - China Mobile's cloud revenue for the first half of 2025 was 56.1 billion yuan, up 11.3% year-on-year [47] - China Telecom's Tianyi Cloud revenue for the same period was 57.3 billion yuan, a 3.8% increase [47] - The ARPU values for China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom remained relatively stable, with slight decreases noted for China Unicom [47][52][56] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main AI investment themes: "Optical, Liquid Cooling, and Domestic Computing Power" [18] - Specific recommended stocks include Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Yingwei Ke [16][18] - The report also highlights potential beneficiaries in various sectors, including AI applications, operators, and satellite internet [18][19][26]