高频数据扫描：宽信用先行、宽货币可期

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific industry investment rating [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank indicates there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The pre - released policies are mainly "broad - credit" in effect, and the exchange rate does not strongly constrain interest rate cuts. The large - scale maturity and repricing of long - term deposits in 2026 will help stabilize the net interest margin [3] - Deposit repricing supports the space for interest rate cuts, but the bond market also needs to pay attention to the diversion effect of the stock market on matured deposits. The proportion of non - bank deposits may reach a new high, which is related to the form and rhythm of the stock market [3] - The year - on - year increase in the US core CPI in December last year was the same as the previous month. The risk of re - inflation is temporarily limited, and the impact of the US tax - cut policy on inflation remains to be observed [3] - Powell is facing a criminal investigation. The decision of the grand jury may be the key variable affecting the uncertainty of the Fed's subsequent decision - making process and the volatility of US Treasury bonds [3] - Geopolitical risks have caused oil price fluctuations. There are also changes in the prices and indicators of various domestic products such as agricultural products, industrial products, and metals [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 High - frequency Data Scan - The repricing of time deposits supports the space for interest rate cuts. In 2025, with a 10BP cut in the LPR, the bank's net interest margin remained stable, and this effect should be further enhanced in 2026. However, the bond market needs to pay attention to the impact of the stock market on the diversion of matured deposits [3] - The year - on - year increase in the US core CPI in December last year was flat compared to the previous month. The risk of re - inflation is temporarily limited, and the impact of the US tax - cut policy on inflation remains to be seen. Powell's criminal investigation may affect the volatility of US Treasury bonds [3] - In the week of January 16, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.45% week - on - week and decreased by 20.75% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables decreased by 1.44% week - on - week and increased by 6.49% year - on - year. There were also changes in the prices and indicators of other products such as cement, iron ore, and crude oil [3] 3.2 High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The report presents data on the growth rate of time and other deposits, the relationship between LPR and bank net interest margin, and the proportion of non - bank deposits, as well as data on the ratio of US currency in circulation to GDP and personal consumption, and the relationship between US non - farm weekly wages and core CPI [11][16] - It also shows the week - on - week and year - on - year changes in various high - frequency indicators, including food, other consumer goods, bulk commodities, energy, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, real estate, and shipping [21][22] 3.3 Comparison of High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators' Trends - The report provides multiple sets of charts to show the relationship between high - frequency indicators such as copper spot price, crude steel daily output, and various price indices, and important macroeconomic indicators such as industrial added value, PPI, CPI, and fixed - asset investment [24][29][32] 3.4 Important High - frequency Indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan - It includes charts showing the relationship between US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth, the number of first - time unemployment claims and the unemployment rate, US same - store sales growth and PCE year - on - year, as well as the implied prospects of interest rate hikes or cuts by the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank in the derivatives market [94][102][105] 3.5 Seasonal Trends of High - frequency Data - The report shows the seasonal trends (in terms of month - on - month increases) of high - frequency indicators such as the commodity trading area in 30 large and medium - sized cities, LME copper spot settlement price, and crude steel daily output [108][110][114] 3.6 High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - It presents the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [157][162]