玻璃厂库存去化纯碱供应恢复至高位

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Report Core Views Glass - Supply: Last week, two production lines underwent cold repairs, leading to a continued decline in glass output. With current profit pressures on glass factories and high inventories, the intensity of cold repairs has increased. Future focus should be on glass supply. Last week, float glass production was 1.0592 million tons (-14,100 tons), and the national float glass operating rate was 71.95% (-1.08%) [5][14]. - Demand: Year - end rush - order demand has weakened month - on - month, and sales pressure is evident in the northern regions. The weak real - estate market restricts significant upward potential for glass demand, and the number of downstream deep - processing order days remains weak year - on - year. Seasonally, there is end - of - year restocking demand from downstream, which requires future attention. Overall, glass demand will continue to face pressure near the year - end, and attention should be paid to changes in speculative demand. On January 4th, the number of downstream deep - processing order days was 8.6 days (-1.1 days), and last week's float glass weekly apparent demand was 22.5329 million weight boxes (-690,600 weight boxes) [5][18]. - Inventory: Affected by cold repairs, the restocking意愿 of the mid - and downstream has increased. Last week, mid - stream inventory increased, and upstream inventory decreased. With cold repairs implemented, the glass supply - demand pattern has improved. It is advisable to adopt a slightly bullish trading strategy, with the glass index expected to range between 1080 - 1180. Last week, the total inventory of the national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million weight boxes (-1.348 million weight boxes); Hubei's in - factory inventory was 5.375 million weight boxes (-205,000 weight boxes); Shahe's in - factory inventory was 2.6136 million weight boxes (-952,800 weight boxes); and Shahe's trader inventory was 5.08 million weight boxes (+720,000 weight boxes) [5][22]. - Cost and profit: Last week, glass costs fluctuated, and profits also showed mixed trends. The weekly average cost of float glass using natural gas as fuel was 1342 yuan/ton (-2 yuan/ton); the weekly average cost of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was 1037 yuan/ton (+2 yuan/ton); the weekly average cost of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was 1047 yuan/ton (-17 yuan/ton). The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 186.4 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton); the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was - 73.83 yuan/ton (-8.6 yuan/ton); the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was - 5.78 yuan/ton (-18.58 yuan/ton) [30][33]. - Key events to watch: Glass output, glass factory inventory, and glass spot prices [5]. 纯碱 - Supply: Last week, the soda ash price strengthened, and the resumption of alkali plant maintenance was rapid, with supply rising month - on - month to a high level. Against the backdrop of new capacity coming on - stream, long - term supply pressure is significant. Spot prices have a great impact on alkali plant maintenance intentions. If prices weaken in the future, alkali plants may start maintenance. Future focus should be on supply. Last week, soda ash production was 753,600 tons (+56,500 tons), including light soda ash production of 349,100 tons (+23,000 tons) and heavy soda ash production of 404,500 tons (+33,500 tons) [6][47]. - Demand: Photovoltaic glass output and float glass output both declined month - on - month. With the price decline of float glass, the expectation of cold repairs has increased, putting pressure on the soda ash demand side. Overall, there is an expectation of weakening demand for heavy soda ash, while the demand for light soda ash is relatively stable. Last week, the daily output of float and photovoltaic glass was 238,225 tons (-1770 tons), and the weekly apparent demand for soda ash was 589,200 tons (-138,100 tons) [6][53]. - Inventory: Last week, soda ash inventory increased month - on - month. The strengthening of prices inhibited mid - and downstream purchases, and combined with the recovery of supply, alkali plant inventory accumulation was obvious last week. In the long term, with the expectation of new capacity coming on - stream, alkali plants face significant inventory accumulation pressure. It is advisable to adopt a bearish trading strategy when prices are high, while controlling risks. The soda ash index is expected to range between 1170 - 1280. Last week, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons (+164,400 tons), including light soda ash inventory of 836,500 tons (+104,300 tons) and heavy soda ash inventory of 736,200 tons (+60,100 tons) [6][57]. - Cost and profit: According to Steel Union data, last week, soda ash costs increased, and profits fluctuated. In North China, the cost of heavy soda ash using the ammonia - soda process was 1395.85 yuan/ton (+8.45 yuan/ton), and the cost of light soda ash using the ammonia - soda process was 1307.85 yuan/ton (+0.45 yuan/ton); in East China, the cost of heavy soda ash using the combined - soda process was 1288 yuan/ton (+4.5 yuan/ton), and the cost of light soda ash using the combined - soda process was 1208 yuan/ton (+4.5 yuan/ton) [61][65]. - Key events to watch: Alkali plant maintenance, alkali plant inventory accumulation, and glass output [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Price - As of January 9th, the market price of 5mm float glass in North China was 1020 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the market price of 5mm float glass in Central China was 1040 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The glass price in the mainstream market was running strongly [10]. Supply - Last week, two production lines underwent cold repairs, and glass output continued to decline. With current weak profits of glass factories and high inventories, the intensity of cold repairs has increased. Future focus should be on glass supply. Last week, float glass production was 1.0592 million tons (-14,100 tons), and the national float glass operating rate was 71.95% (-1.08%) [14]. Demand - Year - end rush - order demand has weakened month - on - month, and sales pressure is evident in the northern regions. The weak real - estate market restricts significant upward potential for glass demand, and the number of downstream deep - processing order days remains weak year - on - year. Seasonally, there is end - of - year restocking demand from downstream, which requires future attention. Overall, glass demand will continue to face pressure near the year - end, and attention should be paid to changes in speculative demand. On January 4th, the number of downstream deep - processing order days was 8.6 days (-1.1 days), and last week's float glass weekly apparent demand was 22.5329 million weight boxes (-690,600 weight boxes) [18]. Inventory - Affected by cold repairs, the restocking意愿 of the mid - and downstream has increased. Last week, mid - stream inventory increased, and upstream inventory decreased. Last week, the total inventory of the national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million weight boxes (-1.348 million weight boxes); Hubei's in - factory inventory was 5.375 million weight boxes (-205,000 weight boxes); Shahe's in - factory inventory was 2.6136 million weight boxes (-952,800 weight boxes); and Shahe's trader inventory was 5.08 million weight boxes (+720,000 weight boxes). In North China, overall inventory decreased, but there was significant differentiation. In Shahe, production enterprises had good sales and significant inventory reduction, driving down the overall inventory in North China, while the surrounding areas had mediocre sales. In Central China, production and sales varied, with the second half of the week showing better production and sales than the first half, and overall inventory decreased compared to the previous period. Last week, the end - of - period inventory of glass factories in East China was 11.425 million weight boxes (-44,600 weight boxes); in North China, it was 9.3296 million weight boxes (-816,800 weight boxes); in Southwest China, it was 11.468 million weight boxes (-232,000 weight boxes); in Central China, it was 6.565 million weight boxes (-185,000 weight boxes) [22][26]. Cost and profit - Last week, glass costs fluctuated, and profits also showed mixed trends. The weekly average cost of float glass using natural gas as fuel was 1342 yuan/ton (-2 yuan/ton); the weekly average cost of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was 1037 yuan/ton (+2 yuan/ton); the weekly average cost of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was 1047 yuan/ton (-17 yuan/ton). The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 186.4 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton); the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was - 73.83 yuan/ton (-8.6 yuan/ton); the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was - 5.78 yuan/ton (-18.58 yuan/ton) [30][33]. Basis and spread - As of January 9th, the basis of the glass 01 contract was - 124, a week - on - week decrease of 37; the spread between the glass 5 - 9 contracts was - 94, a week - on - week decrease of 10. The glass spot price weakened, and the futures price fluctuated, resulting in a weaker basis and a weaker spread. Currently, the basis level is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, mainly due to the deterioration of the spot supply - demand pattern compared to the past. The glass spread shows a contango structure, indicating a relatively pessimistic market outlook for the near - term contracts [37]. Soda Ash Price - As of January 9th, the market price of light soda ash in Qinghai was 890 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the market price of heavy soda ash in Qinghai was 1188 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 66 yuan/ton. The price of light soda ash in the mainstream market remained stable, while the price of heavy soda ash was running strongly [43]. Supply - Last week, the soda ash price strengthened, and the resumption of alkali plant maintenance was rapid, with supply rising month - on - month to a high level. Against the backdrop of new capacity coming on - stream, long - term supply pressure is significant. Spot prices have a great impact on alkali plant maintenance intentions. If prices weaken in the future, alkali plants may start maintenance. Future focus should be on supply. Last week, soda ash production was 753,600 tons (+56,500 tons), including light soda ash production of 349,100 tons (+23,000 tons) and heavy soda ash production of 404,500 tons (+33,500 tons) [47]. Demand - Photovoltaic glass output and float glass output both declined month - on - month. With the price decline of float glass, the expectation of cold repairs has increased, putting pressure on the soda ash demand side. Overall, there is an expectation of weakening demand for heavy soda ash, while the demand for light soda ash is relatively stable. Last week, the daily output of float and photovoltaic glass was 238,225 tons (-1770 tons) [53]. Inventory - Last week, soda ash inventory increased month - on - month. The strengthening of prices inhibited mid - and downstream purchases, and combined with the recovery of supply, alkali plant inventory accumulation was obvious last week. In the long term, with the expectation of new capacity coming on - stream, alkali plants face significant inventory accumulation pressure. Last week, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons (+164,400 tons), including light soda ash inventory of 836,500 tons (+104,300 tons) and heavy soda ash inventory of 736,200 tons (+60,100 tons) [57]. Cost and profit - According to Steel Union data, last week, soda ash costs increased, and profits fluctuated. In North China, the cost of heavy soda ash using the ammonia - soda process was 1395.85 yuan/ton (+8.45 yuan/ton), and the cost of light soda ash using the ammonia - soda process was 1307.85 yuan/ton (+0.45 yuan/ton); in East China, the cost of heavy soda ash using the combined - soda process was 1288 yuan/ton (+4.5 yuan/ton), and the cost of light soda ash using the combined - soda process was 1208 yuan/ton (+4.5 yuan/ton) [61][65]. Basis and spread - As of January 9th, the basis of the soda ash 05 contract was - 40, a week - on - week increase of 37; the spread between the soda ash 5 - 9 contracts was - 67, a week - on - week decrease of 2. The soda ash spot price increased significantly, while the futures price declined after rising, resulting in a stronger basis and a weaker spread. Currently, the basis is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, mainly due to the deterioration of the spot supply - demand pattern compared to the past. The high inventory of alkali plants exerts some pressure on the spot price. The different - month spreads of soda ash show a contango structure, indicating a relatively pessimistic market outlook for the near - term contract supply - demand pattern [69].