Orient Securities·2026-01-18 06:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the utility sector, indicating a favorable investment environment [7][3]. Core Insights - December's electricity consumption growth was affected by temperature, but a stable growth rate is expected for 2026, with an anticipated growth rate of around 5% [7][10]. - The report highlights that the long-term electricity price reform is necessary to support the increasingly complex new energy system in China [7]. - The performance expectations for the utility sector have reached a low point, making low-priced utility assets worth considering for investment [7]. Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption - In 2025, the total electricity consumption in China increased by 5.0% year-on-year, with growth rates for different sectors being +9.9% for primary industry, +3.7% for secondary industry, +8.2% for tertiary industry, and +6.3% for residential use [10][9]. - The average national temperature in December 2025 was -1.1°C, which contributed to the decline in electricity consumption growth [7][10]. Coal Prices and Supply - Coal prices at ports and production sites have weakened slightly, aligning with previous expectations. The report anticipates that short-term coal prices will remain stable with limited upward potential [7][27]. - As of January 16, 2026, the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 695 CNY/ton, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.6% [27][30]. Performance of Utility Sector - The utility sector index rose by 0.1%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.7 percentage points during the week of January 10-16, 2026 [53]. - The report suggests that the utility sector remains a quality dividend asset for long-term investment, especially under the current low-interest-rate environment [7][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on utility stocks, particularly in thermal, hydropower, nuclear, and renewable energy sectors, with specific stocks highlighted for potential investment [7][3]. - Notable stocks include: - Thermal Power: Jiantou Energy, Huadian International, Guodian Power, Huaneng International, and Waneng Power [7]. - Hydropower: Yangtze Power, Guiguan Power, Chuanwei Energy, and Huaneng Hydropower [7]. - Nuclear Power: China General Nuclear Power [7]. - Wind and Solar: Longyuan Power [7].