国泰君安期货煤焦周度观点-20260118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Event-driven factors combined with valuation repair have led to subtle changes in the supply - demand structure. Coking coal and coke will maintain a high - level oscillating pattern. The recent rebound is not based on the commodity's fundamental narrative, and the game mainly focuses on two aspects. First, from a driving perspective, the core of market trading lies in concerns about the coal mine supply guarantee management in 2026. Second, from a valuation perspective, black commodities were previously at low prices. Against the backdrop of obvious rotation in the commodity sector, funds are more inclined towards undervalued varieties. The supply - demand contradiction of coking coal and coke is still accumulating. Before the Spring Festival, coking coal and coke are expected to maintain high - level oscillations. It is recommended that investors try to go long on dips, and after the options are listed, they can mainly use strategies such as selling 1000P or protective call building [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Domestic supply: The operation of domestic coal mines has gradually returned to normal levels. Coal mines are selling their products smoothly, and some coal mines had all their pre - Spring Festival production contracted. The increase in pit - mouth quotes and the scope of price increases are gradually expanding. According to Mysteel's statistics on the weekly production and sales of 523 coking coal mines, the daily output of raw coal from sample coal mines increased by 7.9 tons week - on - week. In terms of imports, the downstream winter storage window has fully opened this week. The booming domestic coal market has led to better sales at ports, with a significant increase in trading volume compared to the previous period, and the inventory in the supervision area is gradually being depleted [3]. 3.2 Demand - Coke has started the first round of price hikes. The number of routine blast furnace overhauls increased this week, and the molten iron output decreased slightly by 1.49 tons to 228.01 tons. After the overhauls end, the molten iron output is expected to rise again, and the rigid demand for raw materials remains supported [6]. 3.3 Inventory - This week, the total coking coal inventory increased by 128.4 tons week - on - week, with a significant increase in the data at the mine level, up 17.7 tons week - on - week. Some coking and steel enterprises have started winter storage replenishment, and the inventory is beginning to shift downstream. The inventory in the independent coking sector increased by 61.2 tons compared to last week, and the inventory in the steel mill coking sector increased by 4.5 tons week - on - week [6]. 3.4 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Fundamental Changes | Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 862.95 (+36.57); FW clean coal 439.21 (+19.19); Independent coking plant daily average 63.4 (-0.1); Steel mill coking enterprise daily average 46.7 (-0.2) | | | Demand | Molten iron output 228.01 (-1.49) | Molten iron output 228.01 (-1.49) | | Inventory | MS total inventory +128.4; Mine raw coal - 21.45; Mine clean coal - 27.63; Independent coking - 4.3; Independent coking +61.2; Steel mill +4.6; Steel mill coking +4.5; Port +16.0; Port +17.8; Port of entry +6.6 | MS total inventory +16.3 | | Profit | Commodity coal 463 (+18) | Average profit of coking enterprises 10 (-13) | | Warehouse Receipt | Mongolia 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 1232 | Port quasi - dry quenched coke warehouse receipt 1700 | [8] 3.5 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - Supply: There are data on the weekly and monthly production of coking coal, including the production of raw coal, clean coal, and the operation rate of 523 sample mines. There are also data on the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at various ports [10][12][14]. - Inventory: Data on coking coal inventory at pit - mouth, ports, coking plants, and steel mills are provided, including inventory volume and available days [24][26][29][34]. 3.6 Coke Fundamental Data - Supply: Data on the capacity utilization rate and production of coking plants and steel mills are presented, including the capacity utilization rate of different - scale coking plants and the daily output of coking plants and steel mills [37][43][45]. - Inventory: Data on coke inventory at coking plants and steel mills are provided, including total inventory, inventory by region, and available days [49][50][58]. - Demand: Data on coke demand in terms of pig iron production and the supply - demand difference are provided [61]. - Profit: Data on coke profit, including the disk profit of coke per ton and the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises, are provided [64]. 3.7 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: Information on the futures prices, trading volume, and open interest of coking coal 2605, coking coal 2609, coke 2605, and coke 2609 is provided, as well as the price trends of coking coal and coke indices [67][70]. - Spot: Information on the spot prices of coking coal and coke, including the car - board prices of different types of coking coal and the ex - factory prices of different types of coke, is provided [78]. - Spread: Information on the monthly spreads of coking coal and coke is provided [73][76]. - Basis: Information on the basis of coking coal and coke is provided [81].