交通运输行业周报：2025年快递业务量同比增长13.7%，上海发布智驾利好政策-20260118

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for the logistics sector, specifically highlighting companies such as SF Express and ZTO Express due to their valuation and operational resilience [2][3]. Core Views - The express delivery industry is expected to see a business volume growth of 13.7% year-on-year in 2025, with major companies benefiting from price increases amid reduced competition [2]. - The logistics sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, supported by favorable policies for intelligent driving in Shanghai, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency [3]. - The aviation sector is projected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics, with airlines like China Southern Airlines and Air China recommended for investment due to their profit potential [4]. - The shipping industry shows signs of stabilization, with container shipping rates experiencing slight increases, although overall rates remain lower compared to previous years [5]. Summary by Sections Transportation Sector Overview - The transportation index fell by 1.2% during the week of January 10-16, 2026, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.6% [12]. Express Delivery - In 2025, the express delivery business volume is projected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5% in revenue [2]. - The total volume of postal express collected was approximately 4.107 billion pieces, with a week-on-week increase of 7.1% [2]. Logistics - The chemical product price index (CCPI) was reported at 4024 points, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.7% [3]. - The opening rates for key chemicals such as paraxylene and methanol showed slight increases, indicating a stable production environment [3]. Aviation - The average daily flights in China decreased by 5.66% year-on-year, with domestic flights down by 6.18% [4]. - The Brent crude oil price was reported at $64.13 per barrel, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 19.76% [4]. Shipping - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) was at 1209.85 points, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 22.5% [5]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was reported at 1586.4 points, with a year-on-year increase of 51.2% [5]. Road and Rail - National highway freight traffic saw a week-on-week increase of 17.3%, although year-on-year figures showed a decline of 2.02% [5]. - The total railway freight volume for November 2025 was 4.6 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.16% [78].