债市微观结构跟踪：债市情绪回暖

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The reading of the bond market micro - trading thermometer has rebounded to 48%, an increase of 8 percentage points from the previous period. Most indicator quantiles have risen, with only a few showing a decline [13]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has increased to 25%. Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number in the over - heated range has risen to 5 (25%), in the neutral range to 8 (40%), and in the cold range has decreased to 7 (35%) [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1.本期微观交易温度计读数转为回升至 48% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed - Income Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" has rebounded 8 percentage points to 48%. Only the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, fund divergence, and market interest rate quantile have dropped by 8, 2, and 1 percentage points respectively, while others have increased to varying degrees [13]. 3.2.本期位于偏热区间的指标数量占比升至 25% - Transaction Heat Indicators: The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has risen to 50%, and the proportion in the neutral range remains 50%, with the proportion in the cold range dropping to 0%. The TL/T long - short ratio has risen from the cold range to the over - heated range, and most other indicator quantiles have slightly rebounded [18]. - Institutional Behavior Indicators: The proportions of indicators in the over - heated, neutral, and cold ranges remain 25%, 25%, and 50% respectively. The trading - allocation buying volume quantile has increased by 22 percentage points, and the quantiles of money tightness expectation, allocation disk strength, and listed company wealth management buying volume have also slightly rebounded [22]. - Interest Rate Spread: The policy interest rate spread has narrowed by 3bp to 3bp, with the quantile rising by 20 percentage points to 54% and moving from the cold range to the neutral range. The credit spread has widened by 2bp to 54bp, the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread has narrowed by 1bp to - 1bp, and the Agricultural Development - Guokai spread remains flat. The average of the three spreads remains at 17bp, and its quantile has slightly dropped by 1 percentage point to 59%, still in the neutral range [27]. - Price Ratio: The proportion of price - ratio indicators in the cold range has dropped to 75%, and in the neutral range has increased to 25%. The commodity price - ratio quantile has rebounded by 16 percentage points to 34%, moving from the cold range to the neutral range. The stock - bond and real - estate price - ratio quantiles have also rebounded by 3 and 14 percentage points respectively [30].