海外科技行业2026年第3期：台积电资本开支激增，OPEN AI广告开始变现

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, recommending investment in AI computing, cloud vendors, AI applications, and AI social sectors [6]. Core Insights - TSMC's financial report shows strong demand for 3nm technology, with Q4 2025 revenue reaching $33.7 billion, a 1.9% quarter-over-quarter increase, and a gross margin of 62.3%, up 2.8% [6][9]. - OpenAI has announced an advertising strategy for its ChatGPT services, aiming to monetize its large user base, which has nearly 1 billion monthly active users, of which only 5% are paying subscribers [10][24]. - Major memory manufacturers are increasing production, but demand continues to outstrip supply, indicating a sustained memory supercycle [11]. Summary by Sections TSMC Financial Performance - TSMC's revenue for Q4 2025 was $33.7 billion, exceeding guidance, with a gross margin of 62.3% [6][9]. - The share of 3nm process technology in revenue increased to 28%, a 5% quarter-over-quarter rise [6][9]. - TSMC's capital expenditure is projected to surge to $52-56 billion, primarily for advanced processes [6][9]. OpenAI's Advertising Strategy - OpenAI plans to introduce ads in its free and entry-level subscription versions of ChatGPT, reflecting a shift towards monetization amid significant operational losses [10][24]. - The company faces pressure to convert its large free user base into paying customers to support its ambitious goals [10][24]. Memory Manufacturers' Production Increase - Samsung's DRAM production is expected to rise to 8 million wafers in 2026, a 5% increase year-over-year, while SK Hynix anticipates an 8% increase [11]. - Despite these increases, there remains a significant gap between supply and market demand, indicating ongoing challenges in the memory market [11]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Nvidia (NVDA), TSMC (TSM), ASML (ASML), and Broadcom (AVGO) in the AI computing sector [26][30]. - For cloud vendors, Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Google (GOOGL) are highlighted [26][30]. - In AI applications, Apple (AAPL), Qualcomm (QCOM), Lenovo (0992.HK), and Xiaomi (1810.HK) are recommended [26][30].