国泰君安期货能源化工天然橡胶周度报告-20260118

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the view on natural rubber is that it will fluctuate weakly. Overseas raw material prices have briefly corrected, weakening cost support and dampening the market's bullish sentiment. The seasonal inventory accumulation trend of natural rubber remains unchanged, and the downstream production - sales pressure persists. With the commodity market under pressure, rubber prices may decline further in the short term. However, the amount of warehouse receipts may be relatively small this year, limiting the downside space. [95] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached new historical highs, ranking first globally for 17 consecutive years. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles exceeded 16 million units, and the domestic market share of new - energy vehicles exceeded 50%. The export of automobiles exceeded 7 million units, with new - energy vehicle exports reaching 2.615 million units, doubling year - on - year. In 2026, China's automobile industry will continue to pursue high - quality development. [5] - In 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 16.7% year - on - year to 8.525 million tons. [6] - In 2025, Cambodia's latex exports decreased by 12.3% year - on - year to 343,762 tons, but domestic latex consumption increased by 146% to 124,231 tons. [7] 3.2 Market Trends - This week, most domestic and foreign rubber futures prices declined, with NR leading the decline and Japanese rubber rising. On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of RU2605, NR2605, Singapore TSR20:2605, and Tokyo RSS3:2605 were 15,835 yuan/ton, 12,830 yuan/ton, 181.90 cents/kg, and 349.10 yen/kg respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 1.22%, - 1.46%, - 1.03%, and 1.01% respectively. [9][11] 3.3 Price Spreads - Basis and Calendar Spreads: On January 16, 2026, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU05 was - 235 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 28.79% and a year - on - year increase of 69.08%. The 05 - 09 calendar spread was 30 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20.00% and a year - on - year increase of 115.79%. [15] - Other Spreads: Spreads such as RU - NR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 decreased, while the spread of RU - BR increased. The import rubber market price fluctuated this week, and the spot price declined following the futures market at the end of the week. The spreads of whole - milk rubber to Thai mixed rubber and 3L to Thai mixed rubber widened. [16][19][21] - Substitute Prices: This week, the price of butadiene continued to rise. The domestic cis - butadiene rubber capacity utilization rate remained high, and the supply pressure restricted the upward movement of the negotiation price center. The mainstream supply price of cis - butadiene rubber increased slightly, and the theoretical production profit turned into a loss. The spot price gradually rose, but the trading performance was poor. [26] 3.4 Capital Flows - The virtual - to - physical ratio and the settled funds of both RU and NR decreased. On January 16, 2026, the virtual - to - physical ratios of RU and NR were 21.50 and 20.35 respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 5.33% and 2.76% respectively. The settled funds of RU and NR were 6.642 billion yuan and 2.675 billion yuan respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 3.64% and 6.23% respectively. [29][31] 3.5 Fundamental Data 3.5.1 Supply - Weather in Producing Areas: The rainy seasons in southern and northeastern Thailand, as well as in Hainan and Yunnan in China, have basically ended. [34][36] - Raw Material Prices: As the domestic producing areas enter the end of the tapping season, raw material prices rose due to restocking by overseas factories and improved EU orders but declined at the end of the week. [38] - Raw Material Spreads: The spread between Thai glue and cup lump widened. The domestic producing areas have basically stopped tapping, and price updates have been suspended. [43] - Upstream Processing Profits: The processing profits of Thai rubber were divided. The processing profit of standard rubber increased, while the profits of smoked sheet rubber and concentrated latex decreased. [44] - Export Data: In November 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month, with latex exports increasing slightly. In December 2025, Indonesia's natural rubber exports increased slightly month - on - month, but the exports to China decreased significantly. In November 2025, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased slightly month - on - month. In December 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased month - on - month, and the exports to China increased significantly. [54][60][66][68] - Rubber Imports: In November 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) were 6.436 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.76%. [72] 3.5.2 Demand - Tire Capacity Utilization and Inventory: This week, as the production scheduling of maintenance enterprises gradually stabilized, the output increased significantly compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased due to the increase in foreign trade orders, while some all - steel tire enterprises controlled production to limit inventory growth, restricting the increase in all - steel tire capacity utilization. Both all - steel and semi - steel tires continued to accumulate inventory. [75] - Tire Exports and Heavy - Truck Sales: In November 2025, tire exports recovered slightly month - on - month, heavy - truck sales increased month - on - month, and the growth rate accelerated. In December 2025, passenger - car sales decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month. [82] - Highway Freight Turnover: In November 2025, the highway freight turnover increased month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased month - on - month. [83] 3.5.3 Inventory - Spot Inventory: China's natural rubber inventory continued to accumulate. The dark - colored rubber inventory increased significantly, and the overall inventory in Qingdao Port continued to accumulate. On January 9, 2026, the dark - colored rubber inventory was 835,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.55%; the light - colored rubber inventory was 421,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.84%; and the total social inventory was 1.2568 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.97%. [89][90] - Futures Inventory: On January 16, 2026, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 108,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.73%; the futures - spot inventory was 122,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.57%. The futures inventory of 20 - rubber on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 56,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.35%; the futures - spot inventory was 59,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.17%. [92] 3.6 This Week's Viewpoint Summary - Supply: As of Friday, the price of Thai raw material glue was 58 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 52.2 Thai baht/kg. The price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13,200 yuan/ton. China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.256 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,000 tons or 1.9%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 835,000 tons, an increase of 2.5%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 421,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8%. Overseas raw material prices showed a downward trend, weakening cost support. [95] - Demand: Recently, the operation of enterprise equipment has varied. Some all - steel tire enterprises have increased shipment pressure and controlled production to manage inventory. Some semi - steel tire enterprises, supported by foreign trade orders, have increased their production to a high level. Currently, enterprises are in the inventory - building stage, and inventory continues to increase. [95] - Viewpoint: The short - term correction of overseas raw material prices has weakened cost support and dampened the market's bullish sentiment. The seasonal inventory accumulation trend of natural rubber remains unchanged, and the downstream production - sales pressure persists. With the commodity market under pressure, rubber prices may decline further in the short term. However, the amount of warehouse receipts may be relatively small this year, limiting the downside space. [95] - Valuation: On Friday, the spread between the main contracts of RU and NR was 3,090 yuan/ton, a week - on - week contraction of 55 yuan/ton. The spread between mixed standard rubber and the main contract of RU was - 905 yuan/ton, a week - on - week contraction of 90 yuan/ton. [95] - Strategy: 1) For unilateral trading, adopt a range - trading approach. The market may fluctuate weakly, but the downside space is limited. 2) For inter - delivery spread trading, observe. 3) For inter - commodity spread trading, go long on RU and short on NR, which may differ from the seasonal spread trend in previous years. [95]