国泰君安期货能源化工纸浆周度报告-20260118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market is expected to remain in a pressured and volatile pattern in the short term. With port inventories entering an accumulation cycle, supply pressure becomes more apparent. The price of broadleaf pulp may continue to face downward pressure, while the price of softwood pulp will fluctuate between the futures market and the weak spot fundamentals. The market lacks a one - sided driving force, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate following the overall atmosphere of commodities and macro - news [97][98]. - In terms of trading strategies, it is recommended to short on rebounds or stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for inter - period trading, and observe for inter - variety trading [100]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of January 15, 2026, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 543,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18,000 tons or 3.4%. The inventory at Qingdao Port was 1.362 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons or 1.5%. The inventory at Gaolan Port was 20,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21,000 tons or 51.2%. The total inventory of mainstream ports was 2.014 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,000 tons or 0.3% [5][6]. - In December 2025, China's pulp imports were 3.113 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. The cumulative annual imports were 36.038 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.9% [6]. - On January 15, 2026, the environmental impact report of Jiulong Paper's quality improvement and efficiency enhancement technical renovation project was approved. The total investment of the project is 4 billion yuan, and the total pulp and paper production capacity will reach 9.1 million tons per year [7]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On January 16, 2026, the basis of Silver Star pulp was 88 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 76.00%; the basis of Russian Needle pulp was - 112 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 25.33%; the price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 200 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [13]. - On January 16, 2026, the 03 - 05 month spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.88%; the 05 - 07 month spread was - 22 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8.33% [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp continued to narrow this week. On January 16, 2026, the price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11.76%; the price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 550 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15.38% [23][25]. - The import profit of pulp decreased. In January, the announced FOB prices of softwood pulp increased by $10/ton, and those of hardwood pulp increased by $20/ton, while the FOB price of unbleached pulp remained flat. Downstream paper mills are cautiously waiting and seeing, and the trading situation in the pulp market is unclear [29]. - The price of the main pulp futures contract fluctuated downward. The spot price of imported softwood pulp adjusted weakly following the market. The import cost of hardwood pulp remained high, but the trading rhythm in the market slowed down, and the high - price goods had few actual transactions [31][33]. 3.3.2 Supply - The purchase price of wood chips by paper enterprises in East China remained stable this week [40]. - The price of domestic chemimechanical pulp decreased this week, while the supply of domestic pulp remained stable [44]. - In November 2025, the pulp port inventory in Europe and the global pulp shipping volume continued to decline [48]. - In November 2025, the shipping volume of W20 softwood pulp was at a low level with high inventory; the inventory of hardwood pulp was at a high level, the shipping volume decreased, and the inventory days returned to a year - on - year high [52]. - In October 2025, the export volume of softwood pulp from Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States to China increased significantly month - on - month. In November, the export volume of Finnish softwood pulp to China decreased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. In December, the export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China increased significantly month - on - month [58]. - In November 2025, the export volume of hardwood pulp from Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile to China decreased month - on - month. In December, the export volume of Brazilian hardwood pulp to China increased significantly month - on - month, and the export volumes of Chile and Uruguay to China also increased [62]. - In November 2025, China's pulp imports increased, with softwood pulp increasing by 4.93% month - on - month and hardwood pulp increasing by 33.85% month - on - month [64]. 3.3.3 Demand - The domestic offset paper market was in a weak consolidation state. The supply was abundant, but the demand was weak, and the price was difficult to transmit downstream [68]. - The domestic coated paper market was sluggish. The supply was sufficient, but the downstream demand was weak, and the middle - men traders were cautious and focused on destocking [72]. - The price of white cardboard was stable this week. The cost provided bottom - support, but the demand weakened, and the traders' enthusiasm decreased [76]. - The price of household paper was stable this week. The terminal demand was weak, and the industry's operating rate decreased slightly [80]. - In November 2025, the retail sales of books, newspapers, magazines, catering, and Chinese and Western medicines increased significantly month - on - month, while the retail sales of cosmetics decreased significantly month - on - month [84]. 3.3.4 Inventory - On January 16, 2026, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 149,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.16%, and a year - on - year decrease of 57.41% [87]. - The port inventory was at the median level since 2025, and the inventory of mainstream ports in China continued to accumulate this week. The inventory at Qingdao Port and Changshu Port increased slightly, while the inventory at other ports decreased to varying degrees [94].