国泰君安期货金银周报-20260118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is at a new starting point for an upward trend. It is recommended to increase the allocation of gold and pay attention to the new heights brought by the strengthening of its monetary attribute. Strategies such as unilateral long - entry and buying call options for gold are suggested, and volatility may rise [3]. - Due to the increased risk - control pressure of silver exchanges recently, the slowdown of the US inventory flow and domestic speculative sentiment has eased the spot problem. It is recommended to take profit on silver long positions and focus on going long on the gold - silver ratio, which has good cost - effectiveness and protective value [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) - Price and Spread - This week, London gold rose 2.61%, and London silver rose 16.2%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 57 to 50. The 10 - year TIPS rose to 1.91%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate fell to 4.24% (2 - year 3.59%), and the US dollar index was 99.37 [3]. - The overseas spot - futures spread of gold: The spread between London spot and COMEX gold main contract rebounded to - 2.064 US dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold main contract was - 11.1 US dollars per ounce [9]. - The overseas spot - futures spread of silver: The spread between London spot and COMEX silver main contract rebounded to 0.189 US dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver main contract was - 0.76 US dollars per ounce [15]. - The domestic spot - futures spread of gold: This week, the gold spot - futures spread was - 1.23 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [21]. - The domestic spot - futures spread of silver: This week, the silver spot - futures spread was 158 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [23]. - The monthly spread of gold: This week, the gold monthly spread was 7.84 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [27]. - The monthly spread of silver: This week, the silver monthly spread was 0 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [31]. - Inventory and Position - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 5.47 tons this week, and the registered warrant ratio rebounded to 52.1% [39]. - COMEX silver inventory decreased by 329 tons to 13348 tons this week, and the registered warrant ratio dropped to 28.4% [41]. - Gold futures inventory increased by 2.4 tons, and silver futures inventory increased by 6.58 tons to 626 tons [45]. - This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold decreased slightly, and that of silver also decreased slightly [47]. - This week, the inventory of gold SPDR ETF increased by 21.11 tons, and the domestic gold ETF increased by 1.9 tons. The inventory of silver SLV ETF decreased by 235 tons [50][53]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [62].