能源化工胶版印刷纸周度报告-20260118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report suggests short - term bearish sentiment on double - offset paper futures, with the core being the downward correction of high valuations and a lack of fundamental positive factors. Short - term short positions can continue to be held and should be closed at around 4050. In the long - term, the market is likely to decline during the upstream de - stocking cycle, and it is advisable to short on rallies. The recommended strategy is to close short positions opportunistically and conduct a 3 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage [53][54]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - The double - offset paper market remained stable this week. The average market price of 70g wood - pulp high - white double - offset paper was 4725 yuan/ton, and that of 70g wood - pulp natural - white double - offset paper was 4454 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous week. Factors affecting the price include paper mills' price adjustments, production resumptions, downstream demand, and rising pulp prices. Chile's Arauco company raised the January pulp export prices, with coniferous pulp Silver Star up 10 dollars/ton to 710 dollars/ton and broad - leaf pulp Star up 20 dollars/ton to 590 dollars/ton [6]. Market Trends - The price of double - offset paper remained stable. The 70g high - white double - offset paper had no week - on - week or year - on - week change. Futures prices declined, with OP2602 down 148 and OP2603 down 144. The basis in different markets increased [9][10]. Supply and Demand Data Industry Capacity - The industry capacity is in a state of continuous release, and the current industry is overall in an over - supply situation. In 2024, the domestic double - offset paper industry capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the annual output was about 9.478 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 57% [16][20]. Weekly Production and Capacity Utilization - This week, the domestic double - offset paper industry output was 205.2 thousand tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 57.4% [26]. Sales and Inventory - This week, the domestic double - offset paper industry sales volume was 213.2 thousand tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory was 355.0 thousand tons [32]. Import and Export - In November 2025, the domestic double - offset paper import volume was about 10 thousand tons, and the export volume was about 79 thousand tons [38]. Inventory - In December 2025, both social inventory and enterprise inventory decreased [44]. Terminal Consumption - In recent years, the growth rate of the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [50]. Market Judgment - Short - term view: Short positions should be closed opportunistically, and a 3 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage should be entered. The short - term bearish view is due to the continuous increase in the number of warehouse receipts and the over - valuation of the previous futures market. The price may find support at around 4050. In the long - term, the market is likely to decline during the upstream de - stocking cycle, and it is advisable to short on rallies [53][54].