能源化工尿素周度报告-20260118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view on urea is for a period of sideways consolidation. The short - term price may experience a correction, but the decline is expected to be limited due to strong agricultural demand expectations, and the medium - term trend remains bullish. The future upward drive depends on the continuity of mid - stream restocking. For the 05 contract, the fundamental resistance level is around 1,830 yuan/ton, and the support level is estimated to be between 1,700 - 1,720 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Valuation End: Price and Spreads - Multiple charts show the historical trends of urea basis (including Zheng Yuan, Bo Da, Jin Kai, Dong Ping), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), and warehouse receipt numbers, as well as domestic and international spot prices [5][6][18]. Domestic Supply - Capacity: The expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued in 2025. Many companies had new capacity additions or device restarts, with a total of 664 million tons of new capacity added in 2025 and an expected 651 million tons in 2026 [22]. - Production Plan: A list of urea production enterprise maintenance plans from 2025 to 2026 is provided, including details such as enterprise name, annual production capacity, raw materials, and maintenance reasons [24]. - Output: Despite production profits being at the break - even point, the daily output of urea remains at a high level. Charts show historical trends of daily output, capacity utilization, and coal - based and gas - based urea output [25][26]. - Cost: Raw material prices have stabilized, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has increased. Cost calculations for different production processes (fixed - bed, gas - based, and fluidized - bed) are presented [28]. - Profit: The profit corresponding to the urea cash - flow cost is currently in a profitable state, and charts show the profit trends of different production processes [33]. - Net Import (Export): During the reserve period, export policies have tightened. Tables show monthly and annual net import/export data from 2018 to 2025 [38]. Domestic Demand - Agricultural Demand: Agricultural demand shows seasonal strength. Different regions and crops have different demand patterns throughout the year. High - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea from corn [44][47]. - Industrial Demand - Compound Fertilizer: The compound fertilizer industry's fundamentals include capacity utilization, production costs, production margins, and factory inventories [54]. - Melamine: The melamine industry's fundamentals include production margins, market prices, output, and capacity utilization [55]. - Real Estate and Panels: The demand for panels from the real estate sector has limited support, but panel exports show resilience [58]. Inventory - The upstream inventory accumulation pattern continues. As of January 14, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 98.61 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.61 million tons or 3.53%. As of January 15, 2026, the port inventory was 13.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 million tons or 4.29% [62][63]. International Urea - Charts show the historical trends of international urea prices, including FOB prices of large - granular urea in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, and the CFR price of large - granular urea in Brazil [18][67].