国泰君安期货锡周报-20260118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength analysis of the tin industry is neutral, with a price range of 365,000 - 395,000 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, tin prices soared to a record high of 443,380 yuan/ton driven by inventory depletion. The overall fundamentals were strong, with tight supply at the mine end and relatively insensitive terminal demand. However, this week, the fundamentals have loosened, with significant inventory accumulation. Considering the impact of Sino-US strategic stockpiling policies, tin prices may fluctuate widely next week [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - Spot: This week, the LME 0 - 3 discount was -$68/ton, and the domestic spot premium was 150 yuan/ton. Overseas premiums showed a rebound [9][10][15] - Spread: This week, the tin inter - month structure changed from C structure to B structure [18][19] - Inventory: This week, domestic social inventory increased by 2,647 tons, and futures inventory increased by 3,033 tons. LME inventory also increased, and the canceled warrant ratio rebounded to 3.54% [24][27][32] - Capital: As of this Friday, the precipitated funds for Shanghai tin were 4,681,950,000 yuan, and the fund flow in the past 10 days was in the inflow direction [36] - Transaction and Position: This week, Shanghai tin trading volume and open interest decreased. LME tin trading volume rebounded, and open interest increased. The Shanghai tin position - to - inventory ratio declined [38][44][49] 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) - Tin Ore: In October 2025, tin concentrate production was 5,972 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.48%. In November 2025, imports were 15,099 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.41%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan rose to 14,000 yuan/ton, and that for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan rose to 8,000 yuan/ton. The tin ore import profit - and - loss level rebounded [53][54] - Smelting: In November 2025, domestic tin ingot production was 15,960 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.06%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 69.38%, a slight rebound from last week [59][61] - Import: In November 2025, domestic tin ingot imports were 1,195 tons, exports were 1,048 tons, and the net export was 753 tons. The latest import profit - and - loss was - 6,187 yuan/ton [63][65] 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Materials, End - Users) - Consumption Volume: In November 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 15,207 tons, and the actual consumption was 14,066 tons [73] - Tin Materials: This week, the downstream processing fee declined slightly. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises in October rebounded to 73.1%. The production and sales of major tin - plated sheet enterprises in August rebounded slightly [75] - End - User Consumption: In November 2025, the end - user production performance was good, with the monthly production of integrated circuits, electronics, smartphones, and household appliances such as air conditioners all rebounding. The consumption of household appliances and new energy also rebounded month - on - month. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, in sync with the performance of tin prices [82][84][89]