棉花：延续调整态势20260118

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The ICE cotton futures showed a minor fluctuation, rising first and then falling. The USDA's reduction of the US cotton production and ending stocks in the 2025/26 season initially boosted the ICE cotton price, but the strengthening US dollar and the cooling sentiment in the commodity market hindered further upward movement. The domestic cotton futures and spot prices continued to adjust, affected by the overall commodity market sentiment and the lack of new fundamental drivers. The report maintains the view that Zhengzhou cotton futures will fluctuate with a slightly upward trend, and it is advisable to consider trading the target price subsidy policy for the next three years and the new - season production after the Spring Festival in combination with the demand situation [1][4][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Data - ICE Cotton Main Continuation: The opening price was 64.47, the highest was 65.25, the lowest was 64.47, the closing price was 64.62, with a gain of 0.14 and a gain rate of 0.22%. The trading volume was 118,736 lots, a decrease of 33,936 lots, and the open interest was 174,114 lots, an increase of 3,066 lots. - Zhengzhou Cotton Main Continuation: The opening price was 14,680, the highest was 14,890, the lowest was 14,430, the closing price was 14,590, with a loss of 85 and a loss rate of 0.58%. The trading volume was 2,143,790 lots, a decrease of 522,972 lots, and the open interest was 822,611 lots, a decrease of 26,375 lots. - Cotton Yarn Main Continuation: The opening price was 20,710, the highest was 20,890, the lowest was 20,460, the closing price was 20,535, with a loss of 155 and a loss rate of 0.75%. The trading volume was 42,364 lots, a decrease of 14,878 lots, and the open interest was 15,215 lots, a decrease of 1,601 lots [4] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. International Cotton Situation - ICE Cotton: The ICE cotton futures rose first and then fell this week with minor fluctuations. The USDA's reduction of the US cotton production and ending stocks in the 2025/26 season on Monday strengthened the ICE cotton price, but it failed to continue rising due to the strengthening US dollar and the cooling sentiment in the commodity market [4] - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report: In the US cotton balance sheet, the USDA reduced the US cotton planting area, yield per unit, and abandonment rate in the 2025/26 season. The production was cut by 350,000 bales to 13.92 million bales, and the ending stocks were reduced by 300,000 bales to 4.2 million bales. In the global cotton balance sheet, the USDA first cut the global beginning stocks in the 2025/26 season by 950,000 bales, mainly reducing India's stocks by 800,000 bales. It also increased the global cotton production by 360,000 bales, with China's production up by 1 million bales and India, the US, and Turkey's production down by 500,000 bales, 350,000 bales, and 200,000 bales respectively. The global cotton consumption was increased by 310,000 bales, with China's consumption up by 500,000 bales and Turkey's down by 100,000 bales. After these adjustments, the global ending stocks in 2025/26 were reduced by 1.49 million bales to 74.48 million bales [5] - US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data: As of the week ending January 8, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 77,000 tons, a 247% increase compared to the previous week and an 89% increase compared to the four - week average. Vietnam signed 28,900 tons, and China 13,000 tons. The weekly signing volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 2,300 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 35,400 tons, a 1% increase compared to the previous week and an 8% increase compared to the four - week average. Vietnam shipped 12,700 tons, and Pakistan 5,600 tons. The total signing and sales volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 1.6231 million tons, accounting for 62% of the annual forecast total export volume (2.61 million tons), and the cumulative export shipment volume was 748,000 tons, accounting for 46% of the annual total signing volume [5] - Other Major Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries: - India: The Cotton Association of India increased the production and ending stocks forecasts in the 2025/26 season. The production forecast was raised by 750,000 bales to 31.7 million bales, the consumption forecast was increased by 1 million bales to 30.5 million bales, the import volume forecast remained at 5 million bales, and the export volume forecast was reduced by 300,000 bales to 1.5 million bales. The ending stocks were expected to increase by 4.7 million bales to 10.759 million bales. As of the end of December, the cumulative new - cotton listing volume was 15.519 million bales [6] - Brazil: The Brazilian National Supply Company (CONAB) slightly reduced the 2026 cotton production forecast by about 141,000 tons to 3.82 million tons, mainly due to a slight reduction in the assessment of the planting area. In Mato Grosso, the second - crop cotton has started small - scale sowing, and the first - crop cotton sown in December last year is growing well. In Bahia, about 70% of the dry - land cotton fields in the state have completed sowing, and the sowing of irrigated cotton fields is in progress [6] - Australia: The cotton - growing areas have been hot and dry recently. The 11 - month raw cotton export volume was 131,000 tons, a significant month - on - month decline but a 36% year - on - year increase. China was the main destination, accounting for 25%, followed by Vietnam with 22% and India with 20%. In the first four months of this international quarter, the cumulative export volume was 677,000 tons, higher than 609,000 tons in the same period of the 2024/25 season. China's share in the cumulative export volume increased to 31% (28% in the same period last year), India's share rose to 23% (13% in the same period last year), and Vietnam's share decreased to 18% (27% in the same period last year) [7] - Pakistan: The cotton import demand has recovered. The final cotton production forecast for this season is 7 - 7.25 million bales. The cotton import transactions were mild this week. As the domestic cotton price rose steadily, some spinning mills began to shift their procurement focus to the international market, and some enterprises have started to make early arrangements to ensure raw material demand in the second quarter of next year. The business with China, the core export market, is progressing normally, and Chinese buyers are willing to accept a small price increase recently [7] - Bangladesh: The country plans to increase cotton imports. The import demand in the market was mild this week. Some spinning mills plan to expand raw material procurement to lock in costs as the US cotton futures price rose slightly and the domestic yarn market improved. A proposal to levy a 20% tariff on imported yarn to protect local spinning enterprises has been opposed by clothing manufacturers. The relevant consultation is still ongoing, and some observers believe it is difficult to reach a conclusion before the general election planned for February next year. The country is conducting trade negotiations with the US to expand its market share in the US, which may bring benefits to the local textile industry. In addition, the Central Bank of Bangladesh has introduced a new export cash incentive policy. The cotton import volume in December was 113,000 tons, a 7% month - on - month and 10% year - on - year decrease. Brazil was the largest supplier, accounting for 36%, and the African Franc Zone accounted for 24%. In the first five months of this season, the cumulative cotton import volume was 630,000 tons, an 8% year - on - year decrease. The African Franc Zone and Brazil each accounted for 26%, and Australia and India each accounted for 15% [8] - Southeast Asian Textile Industry Startup Rates: As of the week ending January 16, the startup rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 67.8%, 62.9%, and 66.2% respectively, all showing a slight increase compared to the previous week [9] 3.2.2. Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton Price and Trading: In the week ending January 16, the domestic cotton futures and spot prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with the overall price center slightly moving down. The cotton spot trading was better than last week, especially on January 12. After the low - basis cotton spot was gradually traded last week and early this week, some cotton merchants slightly increased the sales basis of cotton spot by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, but there were still some low - basis situations locally [10] - Cotton Warehouse Receipts: As of January 16, the number of registered warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton was 9,666, and the number of forecast warehouse receipts was 883, totaling 10,549, equivalent to 443,058 tons. Among them, there were 217 registered warehouse receipts for domestic - produced cotton in the 2025/26 season and 9,449 for Xinjiang cotton (including 1,058 in northern Xinjiang warehouses, 1,084 in southern Xinjiang warehouses, and 7,307 in inland warehouses) [10] - Spinning Mills and Weaving Mills: The situation of spinning mills was differentiated, and that of weaving mills was still general. In the pure - cotton yarn market, the low - count yarn (including rotor - spun yarn) and conventional varieties were weak due to insufficient new orders, while the combed high - count yarn orders were continuously good, and some spinning mills' orders had reached March. The traceable yarn received a new wave of orders, and the import yarn's outer - market price trended strongly, with the domestic - market spot following the increase, and the price difference between domestic and imported yarns narrowed. The downstream orders improved slightly this week, but the weaving mills' comprehensive inventory was higher than in previous years, so they mainly consumed the previous inventory, and the restocking orders were limited. The startup rate of inland spinning mills decreased slightly this week, and most spinning mills offered discounts to avoid inventory accumulation. Xinjiang spinning mills maintained a high startup rate, with hot orders and large profit margins, and the prices of some spinning mills did not increase significantly. The theoretical cash flow (excluding depreciation) of inland spinning mills was a loss of about 350 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit (including depreciation) of Xinjiang spinning mills was about 75 yuan/ton, both showing improvement compared to last week. The all - cotton grey fabric market was mainly for pre - holiday restocking, with a partial restocking market continuing but overall trading being dull. The production of some local weaving mills increased, and the startup rate recovered slightly, but the overall startup rate was low. The weaving mills' sales were not as good as in the same period of previous years, and the inventory decreased slowly. The order increment of weaving mills was small, mainly small and scattered orders, and large orders were rare. The order processing fees of weaving mills were difficult to increase, and the weaving mills maintained losses. Most weaving mills were cautious about the post - holiday market and adopted a wait - and - see attitude, while a few manufacturers thought the post - holiday market might improve slightly [11][12] 3.3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 basic data charts, including cotton sales progress, cotton commercial inventory (weekly), spinning mills' cotton inventory, weaving mills' yarn inventory, spinning enterprises' cotton yarn inventory, cotton cloth enterprises' cotton cloth inventory, yarn enterprises' startup rate, cotton cloth enterprises' startup rate, pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton cloth CGC32 profit, cotton 5 - 9 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [13][14][15] 3.4. Operation Suggestions - The USDA's reduction of the US cotton production and ending stocks in the 2025/26 season and the global cotton ending stocks in the 2025/26 season in the monthly supply - demand report further strengthened the support for the ICE cotton at the level of 63 - 64 cents/pound. However, affected by the回调 of the Chinese cotton price and the strengthening US dollar, the ICE cotton futures failed to continue rising and still lacked substantial fundamental drivers. The market continued to focus on the new - season cotton sowing situation in Brazil and US cotton exports. The domestic cotton futures and spot prices continued to adjust, affected by the overall commodity market sentiment and the lack of new fundamental drivers. Currently, the domestic cotton supply is still sufficient, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. Spinning mills have high raw material inventories, and weaving mills have completed a round of restocking, so the downstream has no intention to chase high prices in the short term. The expansion of the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has also raised concerns about the increase in imported cotton and yarn. In addition, the market's expectation of a decrease in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 has been fully traded for the time being due to the lack of further details and the long time until next year's sowing. It is advisable to consider trading the target price subsidy policy for the next three years and the new - season production after the Spring Festival in combination with the demand situation. The report maintains the view that Zhengzhou cotton futures will fluctuate with a slightly upward trend, waiting for the determination of phased support [16]