动力煤产业链周度报告-20260118

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term coal market is weakly adjusted, and the impact of abnormal weather should be noted. The coal price may be weakly volatile in the short term, and the follow - up trend depends on the pre - Spring Festival coal mine shutdown, trader shipments, and terminal restocking rhythm. In the medium - to - long term, the long - term agreement price still provides support, and the reasonable coal price range of (570 - 770) has great reference value [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Price - Domestic coal prices show a mixed trend. As of January 16, the Yulin 5800 - kcal index was 596.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the Ordos 5500 - kcal index was 537.0 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the Datong 5500 - kcal index was 569.0 yuan/ton, down 12.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The short - term coal price has limited upward and downward drivers, and attention should be paid to the impact of abnormal weather and policies. The overseas coal market is stable [9]. 2. Supply 2.1 Domestic Production (Weekly) - As of January 14, the capacity utilization rate of 160 coal mines was 90.32% (previous value 88.24%), and the output was 1.6457 million tons (previous value 1.607 million tons). As of January 16, the capacity utilization rate of 462 sample mines was 90.6% (previous value 90.3%); the output was 3.8269 million tons (previous value 3.8164 million tons) [16]. 2.2 Domestic Production (Monthly) - In November 2025, the national raw coal output was 42.6793 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% and a month - on - month increase of 4.93%. From January to November, the cumulative national raw coal output was 440.1647 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. In 2026, potential factors affecting coal production capacity include the exit of backward production capacity, the exit or conversion of uncompleted approved increased production capacity into reserve capacity, and the disposal of increased production capacity that fails to fulfill coal - power contracts [24]. 2.3 Import (Weekly) - As of January 9, the weekly arrival volume of thermal coal was 8.14 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.19 million tons [25]. 2.4 Import (Monthly) - In December 2025, the national coal import volume was 5.8597 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.94% and a month - on - month increase of 33.01%. The higher - than - expected import volume was mainly due to the "rush to export" phenomenon of overseas suppliers affected by the adjustment of Indonesia's export tariff policy and the advantages of overseas coal imports due to the short - term tightening of domestic supply and the decline of domestic coal prices at the end of the year [32]. 3. Inventory 3.1 Mine Inventory - As of January 14, the inventory of thermal coal sample enterprises' mines was 409,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,400 tons. As of January 16, the inventory of thermal coal sample enterprises' mines was 283,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,200 tons [37]. 3.2 Port Inventory - The de - stocking rhythm of northern ports has slowed down, and the overall inventory is still at a high level. As of January 16, the total inventory of northern ports (excluding Huanghua) was 24.93 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 70,000 tons. The average daily inbound volume at ports this week was 1.0378 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.091 million tons, and the average daily outbound volume was 1.0576 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0128 million tons [3][38]. 4. Transportation - The inbound volume at ports has increased, and the number of anchored ships has risen [39]. 5. Demand 5.1 Power Demand - The daily coal consumption of power plants has limited support, and attention should be paid to the terminal restocking rhythm. In the next 10 days (January 17 - 26), cold air will strengthen, and the daily coal consumption may be boosted. From January to November, the total electricity consumption increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the growth rate of the secondary industry has declined. The overall power generation has decreased, with both thermal and hydropower generation declining. The precipitation in the southwest region has weakened [41][49][50]. 5.2 Non - power Demand - The demand for building materials and metallurgy is weak. This week, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.47 percentage points to 78.84% week - on - week, and the cement clinker capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.83 percentage points to 40.7% week - on - week. The demand for chemical coal remains high [61][67]. 5.3 Total Demand - In November, the demand for thermal coal was weak, showing a year - on - year and month - on - month decline [69].