铅产业链周度报告-20260118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral, with a price range of 17,000 - 17,600 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the lead price is expected to remain volatile. On the supply side, the production of primary lead is under pressure, and the spot import processing fee for lead concentrates with a grade of 60% continues to decline. In the secondary lead sector, although the production capacity in some regions is gradually resuming, the overall production of secondary lead still faces pressure. On the consumption side, battery consumption is weak, and the inventory of finished batteries continues to accumulate. The anti - dumping policy of the GCC on Chinese lead - acid batteries has a significant impact on battery exports. In terms of inventory, the domestic five - region lead inventory has increased week - on - week, and the spot is currently at a premium [6] - For trading strategies, in the unilateral strategy, considering the weak supply - demand pattern in the lead market, shorting volatility can be considered. In the spread strategy, as domestic lead inventory increases while overseas inventory decreases, continuous attention can be paid to the opportunity of long - domestic and short - overseas arbitrage [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Trading Aspect: Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, and Position - Price and Spread: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract last week was 17,475 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.69%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,230 yuan/ton, with a night - session decline of 1.40%. The LME lead 3 - month contract price was 2,005.5 dollars, with a decline of 2.00%. The LME lead spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 44.18 dollars, a change of - 0.13 dollars from the previous week. The Shanghai 1 lead spot premium was 25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The spread between secondary lead and primary lead was - 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spread between the near - month and the first - consecutive contract was - 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from the previous week [7] - Inventory: The Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 27,264 tons, an increase of 11,076 tons from the previous week; the total Shanghai lead inventory was 37,044 tons, an increase of 6,933 tons from the previous week; the social inventory was 32,500 tons, an increase of 12,900 tons from the previous week; the LME lead inventory was 206,350 tons, a decrease of 16,375 tons from the previous week, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 21.17%, a decrease of 5.87% from the previous week [7] - Transaction and Position: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract last week was 121,413 lots, an increase of 62,729 lots from the previous week, and the position was 82,668 lots, an increase of 39,740 lots from the previous week. The trading volume of the LME 3 - month lead contract was 10,524 lots, an increase of 3,875 lots from the previous week, and the position was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots from the previous week [7] 3.2 Lead Supply: Lead Concentrates, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, and Secondary Lead - Lead Concentrates: The import volume, actual consumption, and domestic production of lead concentrates from 2021 - 2025 are presented in the report. The import TC of lead concentrates and the domestic TC are also shown, along with the lead smelting profit (processing). The lead concentrate inventory in Lianyungang from 2021 - 2026 is also provided, and the lead concentrate operating rate from 2021 - 2025 is presented [24][25][26] - Primary Lead and Secondary Lead: The production and weekly operating rate of primary lead from 2021 - 2025 are presented, as well as the combined production of primary and secondary lead, and the production and operating rate of secondary lead from 2021 - 2025. The prices of primary lead by - products such as silver and sulfuric acid, and the production of silver by - products from 2021 - 2025 are also included [28][29][30] - Waste Batteries and Secondary Lead: The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises from 2021 - 2026, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost and profit - loss of secondary lead from 2021 - 2026 are presented [31][32][33] - Import and Export: The net import of refined lead, the monthly import volume of Chinese lead ingots, the import profit - loss of lead, and the export volume of lead ingots from 2021 - 2025 are presented [35] 3.3 Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Batteries and End - Users - Batteries: The operating rate of lead - acid batteries from 2021 - 2026, the monthly finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers from 2021 - 2025, and the export volume of batteries from 2021 - 2025 are presented [38] - Consumption and End - Users: The actual consumption of lead from 2021 - 2025, the monthly production of automobiles and motorcycles from 2021 - 2025 are presented [40]