铜产业链周度报告-20260118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weakening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the increase in inventory are putting pressure on copper prices, but the long - term fundamentals remain positive, which is expected to support the relatively low prices. [5] - In the short term, the domestic spot drive is weakening, while the overseas spot logic remains strong. The overall inventory of global copper has increased this week, with a significant increase in social inventory. [5] - In the long term, the fundamentals still support copper prices. The lack of new large - scale copper mine projects globally in 2026 and the high interference rate in copper mine production will limit the overall supply growth rate of copper mines, thus restricting the growth of refined copper production. The long - term consumption recovery expectation is still strong, and emerging industries such as AI computing power centers have a solid consumption logic. [5] - In terms of trading strategies, the short - term increase in inventory puts pressure on prices, but when prices fall to a relatively low range, the enthusiasm of downstream buyers is still high. Based on the long - term positive fundamentals, the idea of buying copper on dips remains unchanged. Given the high volatility of copper prices, option strategies can be considered to hedge risks. In terms of spread trading, the profit margin for spot exports has expanded, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of internal - external reverse arbitrage. [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Trading End - Volatility: The volatility of LME, SHFE, and COMEX copper has expanded. The LME copper price volatility is around 20%, and the SHFE copper volatility has reached about 25%, slightly rising compared with the previous week. [9] - Term Spread: The term structure of SHFE copper is weak, and the LME copper spot premium has expanded. The SHFE 02 - 03 spread on January 16 was - 180 yuan/ton, lower than - 170 yuan/ton on January 9. The LME 0 - 3 premium on January 16 was 61.52 US dollars/ton, higher than 41.94 US dollars/ton on January 9. The COMEX copper near - end C structure is relatively large, and the spread between the January 16th 01 and 02 contracts was - 66.14 US dollars/ton, slightly narrowing compared with - 68.34 US dollars/ton on January 9. [16] - Position: The positions of SHFE, INE, and LME copper have decreased, while the position of COMEX copper has increased. The SHFE copper position has decreased by 38,000 lots to 643,600 lots. [17] - Capital and Industry Positions: The net short position of LME commercial enterprises has decreased. The net short position of LME commercial enterprises decreased from 72,600 lots on January 2 to 67,500 lots on January 9; the net long position of CFTC non - commercial enterprises decreased from 57,900 lots on January 6 to 53,400 lots on January 13. [23] - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot discount has expanded, and the Yangshan Port copper premium has declined. The domestic copper spot discount expanded from a discount of 45 yuan/ton on January 9 to a discount of 125 yuan/ton on January 16. The Yangshan Port copper premium declined from 51 US dollars/ton on December 31 to 32 US dollars/ton on January 9. The US copper premium has marginally declined. The Rotterdam copper premium remained at 200 US dollars/ton on January 16, and the Southeast Asian copper premium decreased from 187.5 US dollars/ton on January 9 to 145 US dollars/ton on January 16. [29] - Inventory: The global total inventory has increased, with a significant increase in domestic social inventory. The global total copper inventory increased from 950,300 tons on January 8 to 1,020,600 tons on January 15. The domestic social inventory increased from 273,800 tons on January 8 to 320,900 tons on January 15, reaching a high level in the same period of history. The bonded area inventory increased from 78,800 tons on January 8 to 80,000 tons on January 15. The COMEX inventory increased from 518,000 short tons on January 9 to 542,900 short tons on January 16, reaching a high level in the same period of history. The LME copper inventory increased from 139,000 tons on January 9 to 143,600 tons on January 16. [33] - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The position - to - inventory ratio of LME copper fluctuates, and the position - to - inventory ratio of SHFE copper is at a low level in the same period of history. The position - to - inventory ratio of the SHFE 02 contract has declined and is at a low level in the same period of history. The position - to - inventory ratio of LME copper fluctuates, indicating that the overseas spot lacks a driving logic. [34] Supply End - Copper Concentrate: Imports have increased year - on - year, and processing fees have continued to be weak. In November 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2.5262 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 12.55%. The port inventory of copper concentrates increased from 428,000 tons on January 9 to 547,000 tons on January 16. The copper concentrate processing fee has continued to be weak, and the smelting loss decreased from 2,016 yuan/ton on January 9 to 2,118 yuan/ton on January 16. [40] - Recycled Copper: Imports have increased year - on - year, and domestic production has increased significantly year - on - year. In November, recycled copper imports were 208,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.94%. In September, the domestic recycled copper production was 97,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.85%. The refined - scrap spread of recycled copper has narrowed but is still higher than the break - even point, and the import profit of recycled copper has turned into a loss. [41][46] - Blister Copper: Imports have increased month - on - month, and processing fees have rebounded. In November, blister copper imports were 58,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.60%. In December, the blister copper processing fee rebounded, with the southern processing fee at 1,500 yuan/ton and the import processing fee at 95 US dollars/ton. [49] - Refined Copper: Production has increased year - on - year, imports have decreased, and the loss of copper spot imports has expanded. In December, the domestic refined copper production was 1.1781 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. The cumulative production from January to December was 13.4326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.38%. In November, refined copper imports were 271,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.67%. In December, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 437,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.89%. The loss of copper spot imports expanded from 981.04 yuan/ton on January 9 to 1,226.58 yuan/ton on January 16. [52] Demand End - Capacity Utilization Rate: In December, the capacity utilization rate of copper product enterprises rebounded month - on - month. In December, the capacity utilization rates of copper tubes and copper strips and foils rebounded but were at a low level in the same period of history. In the week of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of wire and cable decreased marginally. [56] - Profit: The copper rod processing fee is at a low level in the same period of history, and the copper tube processing fee has declined. As of January 16, the processing fee for copper rods used in the power industry in East China was 280 yuan/ton, lower than 410 yuan/ton on January 9. On January 16, the 10 - day moving average of the processing fee for R410A special copper tubes was 5,226 yuan/ton, lower than 5,368 yuan/ton on January 9. The processing fees for copper strips and lithium - ion copper foils remained stable at a low level. [61] - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has remained at a low level. In December, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a neutral - low position in the same period of history, and the raw material inventory of copper tubes was at a low level in the same period of history. The weekly raw material inventory of wire and cable has continued to decline. [62] - Finished Product Inventory: The finished product inventory of copper rods is at a high level, and the finished product inventory of wire and cable has decreased. In December, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a high level in the same period of history, and the finished product inventory of copper tubes was at a neutral - low position in the same period of history. The weekly finished product inventory of wire and cable has decreased. [65] Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: The apparent consumption is good, and power grid investment remains an important support. From January to November, the cumulative actual consumption of domestic copper was 14.5615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.14%. The cumulative apparent consumption from January to November was 14.6431 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.44%. Industries such as power grid investment, home appliances, and new energy are important supports for copper consumption. The growth rate of power grid investment has slowed down. From January to November, the cumulative power grid investment was 560.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.90%. [72] - Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle Production: In November, the domestic air - conditioner production was 10.577 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 35.70%. In December, the domestic new - energy vehicle production was 1.718 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.29%. [73]