铸造铝合金产业链周报-20260118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength - weakness analysis of the casting aluminum alloy industry is neutral [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the bullish sentiment in the market first soared and then declined. The price of Shanghai aluminum strengthened and then fell, driving the price of casting aluminum alloy to fluctuate at a high level, once reaching a high of 23,940 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, during the Spring Festival stockpiling period of recycled aluminum enterprises, the demand for scrap aluminum increased, and the supply of scrap aluminum raw materials remained tight. However, the high price motivated traders to increase their shipment enthusiasm, leading to an increase in market liquidity. The operating rate of the recycled aluminum industry this week was stable at 58%. Due to repeated regional environmental protection restrictions and the suppression of downstream demand by high aluminum prices, the subsequent operating rate may continue to weaken. In terms of demand, downstream die - casting enterprises showed strong fear of high prices, and enterprise orders declined significantly. Overall, with high raw material prices and the maintenance of the seasonal off - peak demand, the price of casting aluminum alloy may maintain high - level fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the overall sentiment changes in the non - ferrous market [6]. - As of January 16, the combined inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories and social warehouses decreased by 0.32 million tons from the previous week to 12.95 million tons, with a high level of visible inventory. From January 1 to 11, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 328,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 32% and a 42% decrease from the previous month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 328,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 32%. The central economic work conference in 2026 will optimize the "two new" policies, with a more precise subsidy method and different subsidy intensities for different price - range models, benefiting mid - to - high - end cars more [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Transaction End - Volume and Price - Showed the price difference curves of AD00 - 01, AD01 - 02, AD02 - 03, as well as the capital precipitation, trading volume, and open interest trends of casting aluminum alloy [9] Transaction End - Arbitrage Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - For the AD2601.shf and AD2602.shf contracts on January 16, 2026, the spread was 100 yuan/ton. The fixed cost was 16.05 yuan/ton, mainly including the value - added tax of the spread. The floating cost was 90.47 yuan/ton, including storage fees and capital costs. The total cost was 107 yuan/ton [12] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The actual market spot price fluctuates around the Baotai price. Taking January 16, 2026 as an example, the spot price was 23,500 yuan/ton. After calculating various costs such as storage fees, capital costs, and registration costs, the warehouse receipt cost was 23,652 yuan/ton [14] Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. Scrap aluminum imports are also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate [16][21] Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has been raised, and the spread between recycled and primary aluminum has strengthened. The regional spread of casting aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns. The weekly operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy is flat, while the monthly operating rate has declined. The monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy and the output and inventory of recycled aluminum rods are also presented, along with their regional proportion data [32][37][42] - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and currently, it is estimated to be in a loss state. The factory inventory of casting aluminum alloy has slightly decreased, while the social inventory has slightly increased. The import window for casting aluminum alloy has opened [48][53][58] Demand End - Terminal Consumption - In the terminal consumption market, fuel - powered vehicles have entered the year - end sales rush stage, which has been transmitted to the die - casting consumption market. Data on the production of new energy vehicles, fuel - powered vehicles, motorcycles, and household appliances are also provided, along with the PPI of auto parts and the auto inventory warning index [65][66]