镍：印尼言论反复扰动，镍价宽幅震荡运行，不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term due to the conflicting expectations of the secondary market and the industry regarding Indonesian nickel policies. The key to breaking the situation lies in the implementation of Indonesian policies in the first quarter, especially the quota policy. It is recommended to consider options trading and focus on structural opportunities [4][5]. - Stainless steel prices are also expected to fluctuate widely. The cost center has shifted upward due to factors such as nickel - iron price increases, but the supply - demand fundamentals do not support high - level chasing. Attention should be paid to Indonesian nickel policy news, policy implementation, and secondary - market fund outflows before the Spring Festival [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs News and Policy - related Events - Quota event: In January 2026, Indonesian officials' statements on nickel - ore quotas were inconsistent. The 2024 - 2025 quota exceeded actual smelting demand, and the 2026 quota is under review. If the 2.6 - billion - ton quota is implemented, it may lead to smelter production cuts and change the supply - demand outlook. There is a divergence in expectations between the secondary market and the industry [1]. - Associated minerals event: Indonesia plans to include associated minerals such as cobalt in the nickel - ore pricing and taxation system. If implemented, it may increase the cost of smelting by about 5% - 10%, but the impact on nickel costs will be limited if the cost can be passed on [2]. - Illegal fine event: Multiple Indonesian mining companies are facing potential fines of about IDR 80.2 trillion for illegal land occupation. The final amount may be lower, and if fines are imposed, they may be indirectly passed on to ore prices, increasing smelting costs [2]. - Other events: In early 2026, Vale temporarily suspended its nickel - mining operations but later resumed them after obtaining the 2026 mining quota. This may indicate Indonesia's preference for hydrometallurgical projects [3]. - Market news: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for certain products, China has implemented export license management for some steel products, Indonesia plans to revise the nickel - ore benchmark price formula, and there are plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel - ore production target [8][9]. Market Quotes and Analysis - Nickel: The spot fundamentals of nickel are weak, with over - supply pressure and the expectation of low - cost hydrometallurgical project commissioning. The secondary market expects a cyclical shift in Indonesian policies. In the short - term, nickel prices will fluctuate due to the confrontation between different types of funds. Unilateral trading is difficult, and options and structural opportunities are recommended [4][5]. - Stainless steel: Uncertainties in Indonesian policies may weaken short - sellers' confidence. The cost of stainless steel has increased due to the rise in nickel - iron prices, but the supply - demand fundamentals do not support high - level chasing. The price will also fluctuate widely [6]. Inventory Tracking - Refined nickel: On January 15, China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 102 tons to 60,587 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 942 tons to 285,732 tons [7]. - New energy: On January 16, the inventory days of SMM's nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines increased slightly month - on - month. The precursor and ternary material inventories also increased slightly on January 15 [7]. - Nickel - iron to stainless steel: On January 15, the SMM nickel - iron industry - chain inventory decreased by 2% month - on - month to 131,000 metal tons. The stainless - steel factory inventory in December increased year - on - year and decreased month - on - month, and the social inventory on January 15 decreased week - on - week [7]. Key Data Tracking - Futures: The closing prices, trading volumes, and other data of Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel futures are provided, including price changes compared to previous periods [11]. - Industrial chain: Data on various products in the nickel and stainless - steel industrial chains are presented, such as the prices of 1 imported nickel, high - nickel pig iron, stainless - steel products, and battery - grade nickel sulfate, along with their price changes [11].