工业硅：下游减产，反弹逢高布空，多晶硅：下周二市场情绪或有提振

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, with inventory accumulation and expected downstream production cuts, the supply - demand logic is bearish. It is recommended to short at high prices, with a predicted price range of 8200 - 9000 yuan/ton next week [6][7] - For polysilicon, pay attention to the market sentiment boost next Tuesday. The supply is weak and demand is strong, and the price is expected to stay above the cost line of 45,000 yuan/ton. The predicted price range next week is 45,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Futures participation is not recommended, but options can be considered [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - The reference prices of industrial silicon in mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices in three major ports/warehouses have remained stable from December 25, 2025, to January 16, 2026 [10] 2. Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Material Ends - This week, the weekly industrial silicon inventory increased slightly. The social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.42 million tons, with a total increase of 0.7 million tons. The start - up in Xinjiang increased, while that in Sichuan and Inner Mongolia decreased [3][11] - The cost in the southwest region during the dry season is estimated to be 10,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton (converted to the futures price), and the local start - up has dropped to a very low level. Some factories in Xinjiang are still in the heat - preservation state, and some have slightly resumed production [3] 3. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - This week, the polysilicon futures fluctuated within a range, and the spot price was stable. The upstream spot price may be loosened, and attention should be paid to the next restocking node of downstream in late January [2] - The short - term weekly polysilicon output decreased. In January 2026, silicon material manufacturers cut production passively to relieve high - inventory pressure. The current manufacturer inventory is around 320,000 tons, and the industry inventory is about 500,000 tons, close to five months of consumption [4] - The silicon wafer production schedule increased week - on - week in January. The silicon wafer inventory is relatively reasonable, and price increases can be passed on to the downstream, supporting the increase in production. The component export tax rebate will be cancelled in April, which is expected to boost terminal demand [5] 4. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Silicone - This week, the weekly production of silicone decreased, and there are plans for further production cuts in the future to support prices. However, considering the off - season demand and medium - to - high inventory, the price - support logic is difficult to work. The export tax rebate for silicone will be cancelled after April 1, and the pre - emptive export may bring some consumption increments [4] 5. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy ingot manufacturers stock up on industrial silicon reasonably. They are more active in purchasing at low prices and more wait - and - see at other times. The overseas demand in the export market has not improved [4]